NEW YORK, Jan 15, 2026, 10:15 ET — Regular session
- TSMC’s increase in 2026 spending plans sent Nvidia and AMD shares sharply higher, boosting AI chip stocks across the board
- Fresh uncertainty around China-linked demand emerged from new U.S. tariffs and changing export regulations
- Tariff exemptions and the upcoming chipmaker earnings reports are drawing trader attention
Shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices surged Thursday, fueling gains across AI-focused chip stocks following Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s strong profit report and boosted investment outlook. By 10:15 a.m. ET, Nvidia had climbed 2.8%, while AMD jumped 5.5%. U.S.-listed TSMC shares rose 6.3%, ASML gained 6.2%, and Broadcom added around 2%, though Qualcomm dipped 0.8%.
The chip sector still offers one of the clearest plays on generative AI — those models that train on huge data sets and demand intense computing power. These stocks often lead the pack, shifting quickly whenever the supply chain shows signs of stress or resilience.
Demand signals now come tangled with policy. Investors wrestle with robust order forecasts from chipmakers while navigating a shifting rulebook on shipment locations, testing sites, and cost responsibilities.
TSMC reported a 35% jump in fourth-quarter net profit, hitting a record high. It expects 2026 revenue to climb nearly 30% in U.S. dollar terms, driven by customers sending “strong signals” for more capacity. The company plans capital spending between $52 billion and $56 billion that year. CEO C.C. Wei admitted they are “very nervous about it,” warning that careless spending “would be a disaster for TSMC.” Ben Barringer, Quilter Cheviot’s head of technology research, noted: “While the likes of Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD fight it out for chip supremacy, TSMC ultimately benefits.” 1
President Donald Trump has slapped a 25% tariff on select AI chips, including Nvidia’s H200 processor and AMD’s MI325X, citing national security under Section 232. The White House emphasized the tariffs target imports narrowly and won’t cover chips or related gear brought in for U.S. data centers, startups, or similar domestic uses. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick holds wide latitude to approve exemptions. The move also mandates that chips made in Taiwan destined for China must first pass through the U.S. for third-party testing, triggering the new tariff upon entry. 2
Earlier this week, the Trump administration gave the green light for Nvidia’s H200 chip exports to China, but with strings attached. Nvidia must now certify there’s an adequate supply of H200 chips stateside, while Chinese buyers have to prove they have “sufficient security procedures” and won’t use the chips for military ends. Nvidia called the decision “a thoughtful balance that is great for America” and said it would boost its ability to compete for vetted commercial deals. 3
The route into China remains rocky despite U.S. approval. Sources told Reuters that Chinese customs agents were instructed to block Nvidia’s H200 chips. Chris McGuire, senior fellow for China and emerging tech at the Council on Foreign Relations, suggested Beijing sees leverage here. “Beijing believes the U.S. is desperate to sell AI chips to China,” he said. 4
Wall Street got a boost from the chip rally, pushing the S&P 500 roughly 0.6% higher and the Nasdaq close to 1% up right at the open, according to Reuters. 5
The shift came after the Nasdaq dropped 1% and the S&P 500 dipped 0.5% in the previous session, as investors pulled back from expensive megacap tech stocks and digested a mixed batch of bank earnings. 6
In Europe, chip equipment makers felt the ripple from TSMC’s latest move. ASML surged past a $500 billion market cap, while Aureus CIO Han Dieperink remarked, “The market has underestimated again how large is the demand for AI, and the implementation is going faster than everybody expected.” ASML is set to announce its Q4 results on Jan. 28. 7
The rally comes with a caveat. Traders are grappling with how broadly tariffs will extend—and if China’s countermeasures or stricter export controls will choke off shipments of top-tier accelerators fueling data-center demand. A hint that AI spending is hitting its peak would hit this segment hard.
The earnings calendar takes center stage next, along with the evolving rulebook. Traders are eyeing tariff exemption updates and clues on whether Chinese buyers are moving goods through customs smoothly. Nvidia’s next quarterly earnings drop is set for Feb. 25. 8
