New York, Jan 15, 2026, 10:55 EST — Regular session
- Shares of Rocket Lab dropped roughly 4% in early trading following a downgrade from KeyBanc
- The broker noted that Rocket Lab’s multi-year growth drivers have become common knowledge
- Attention now shifts to the Neutron launch schedule and earnings set for late February
Rocket Lab shares slipped Thursday following a downgrade from KeyBanc Capital Markets, halting a recent surge that had lifted the stock to new highs this month. The stock dropped roughly 4.3% to $87.90 in early trading. 1
The stock closed Wednesday 6% higher at $91.80, fueling a sharp rally that attracted both quick traders and longer-term defense and space investors. On Thursday, it gave back some of those gains. 2
Rocket Lab has surged roughly 63% in the past month and climbed over 250% in the past year, according to TradingView data. With such lofty gains, even minor setbacks can pack a punch. 3
KeyBanc downgraded Rocket Lab from “overweight” to “sector weight” and left the price target off the table, according to TheFly. In brokerage terms, “sector weight” roughly means neutral, compared with “overweight,” which suggests the stock should outperform. 4
The brokerage noted that Rocket Lab’s long-term growth drivers are “well known” at this point, calling the near- to medium-term risk-reward fairly balanced. It flagged the possibility of becoming more bullish if there’s clearer timing on Neutron’s maiden flight, bigger contract wins, or a stronger-than-anticipated boost in its space systems segment. 5
Rocket Lab’s recent momentum reflects growing confidence in its government contracts. On Dec. 19, the company announced securing an $816 million deal from the Space Development Agency to produce 18 missile-warning and tracking satellites. The contract includes a base amount of $806 million, with options adding up to $10.45 million. CEO Peter Beck described the win as an honor to contribute to the program. 6
The SDA handed out roughly $3.5 billion tied to that tranche, awarding contracts to Lockheed Martin, L3Harris Technologies, and Northrop Grumman, Reuters reported. These satellites aim to track missile threats worldwide from low Earth orbit. 7
Despite the stock’s recent rally, some analysts remain upbeat. Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed its overweight rating on Wednesday, highlighting Neutron’s maiden flight planned for the first half of 2026 as a major driver for the shares, according to a note summarized by Benzinga. 8
Neutron’s timeline has already faced setbacks. On a November earnings call, Beck revealed Rocket Lab had delayed the rocket’s maiden flight to 2026. Delays continue to be a major execution risk for the company’s stock. 9
Rocket Lab’s quarterly earnings, expected Feb. 26 after the close, will be the next key moment. MarketBeat is forecasting this report. Investors will zero in on progress with Neutron, how backlog is turning into revenue, and any fresh guidance on the pace of new contract wins. 10
