New York, January 15, 2026, 12:42 EST — Regular session
- Adobe shares fell in midday trade, lagging a tech-led rise.
- Oppenheimer’s downgrade this week kept the focus on AI-driven competition and pricing pressure.
- Apple’s new Creator Studio bundle lands Jan. 28; Adobe’s next earnings call is March 12.
Adobe Inc shares edged down 0.6% to $302.49 on Thursday midday, even as the Invesco QQQ Trust tracking the Nasdaq 100 rose about 1%. Salesforce slid more than 3%, while the S&P 500 ETF SPY added about 0.6%.
The slide comes two days after Oppenheimer cut Adobe to “Perform” from “Outperform,” warning that generative AI — tools that can create images and video from text prompts — is tightening competition from OpenAI, Meta and others. “Gen AI is increasing the velocity of content creation while lowering price and subscriber growth,” analysts led by Brian Schwartz wrote, withdrawing their price target as Adobe shares have lost more than a fifth over the past 12 months. They also flagged the risk that Adobe’s seat-based subscription model — charging per user license — faces pressure if customers lean harder into usage-based pricing that charges by task. 1
Apple added fresh noise around creative software on Tuesday when it introduced Apple Creator Studio, a subscription bundle aimed at creators, students and professionals. The service, priced at $12.99 a month or $129 a year, is set to launch on Jan. 28 and includes apps such as Final Cut Pro, Logic Pro and Pixelmator Pro, Apple said. 2
Adobe has dropped fast this week. After ending Jan. 12 around $327.65, the stock is down roughly 8%, with a 5.4% fall on Jan. 13 doing much of the damage. 3
Investors are now watching two things that sound simple but rarely are: retention and price. If customers keep renewing Creative Cloud while paying for new AI features, the story steadies; if they don’t, the math turns ugly.
Adobe has pushed Firefly and other AI tools across its products, arguing that new features can lift engagement and keep users in its ecosystem. Last month, the company forecast fiscal 2026 revenue of $25.90 billion to $26.10 billion and said it would change reporting to emphasize subscription revenue and annual recurring revenue, a common measure of repeat subscription sales. 4
The backdrop hasn’t been friendly for legacy application software. Money has chased “picks-and-shovels” AI trades, and anything that looks like a mature subscription model has had a harder time getting the benefit of the doubt.
But the downside case still hangs over the tape: generative AI could make it easier to switch tools, push down prices and leave Adobe defending margins. A clear read that customers are paying for AI add-ons — not just testing them — would help, but it may take a few quarters to show up cleanly.
The next hard checkpoint is March 12, when Adobe is scheduled to report first-quarter results and host its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific time. 5
Traders will be listening for any tweaks to pricing, AI monetization and guidance, with Apple’s Creator Studio set to arrive on Jan. 28 and more analyst calls likely to follow.
