NEW YORK, Jan 16, 2026, 11:10 (EST) — Regular session
- AppLovin shares dropped roughly 3% in early trading following a volatile start to the session
- A new “Outperform” rating from Evercore ISI this week hasn’t been enough to steady the stock
- Traders are eyeing both options expiry and the upcoming earnings report for a clearer catalyst
AppLovin Corp shares dropped 3.4% to $586.45 Friday morning, slipping from an opening price of $615 and hitting a low of $580.12 in early trades.
The decline adds strain to one of the market’s most volatile ad-tech stocks right as earnings season heats up. It highlights how fast sentiment shifts on high-growth names when traders focus on positioning and short-term cues rather than new company developments.
Wall Street remains divided on what’s more critical for AppLovin at the moment: robust momentum in ad tools or the headline risk that can shake the stock ahead of earnings clarity.
Evercore ISI analyst Robert Coolbrith kicked off coverage this week, handing AppLovin an Outperform rating and setting an $835 price target. He dubbed the company the “dominant” ad tech platform in mobile gaming, highlighting its growing e-commerce performance channel. According to Coolbrith, mobile gaming and e-commerce ad spending could drive revenue and EBITDA growth north of 30% through 2028. 1
Evercore, in a separate note, highlighted strong recent momentum backed by third-party “pixel tracking” and industry checks, arguing the stock’s valuation remains justifiable. The firm values the shares at roughly 36 times fiscal 2026 EV/EBITDA—a metric that looks at a company’s value including debt against profit before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. They also noted the upcoming results should offer clearer insight into trends in gaming and e-commerce. 2
The broader market edged higher on Friday, driven by chipmakers rallying as investors sought to close out a volatile week on a more positive note. U.S. markets will be closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, squeezing next week’s trading into just four sessions amid a fresh wave of earnings reports. 3
Friday’s monthly options expiration might stir up extra volatility. Options let investors buy or sell shares at predetermined prices by a certain date, and large expirations often trigger bigger swings as positions unwind or are adjusted. Brent Kochuba, founder of options analytics firm SpotGamma, said, “I think this options expiration will allow the S&P 500 to start moving around a bit more.” 4
AppLovin remains under regulatory scrutiny. Bloomberg News reported in October that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the company’s data-collection practices. Any negative outcome could hit the stock once more. 5
Traders are keeping an eye on whether the stock holds steady following Friday’s derivatives expiry, and if buyers step in during any dips ahead of the upcoming earnings report.
AppLovin plans to release its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings on Feb. 11, right after the U.S. market shuts. This will be the next key trigger for adjusting expectations. 6
