New York, Jan 17, 2026, 06:02 EST — The market has closed.
- Moderna shares climbed 6.3% Friday, ending the session at $41.83.
- Since Jan. 12, the stock has climbed roughly 24%, following a sharp surge midweek and a subsequent pullback.
- U.S. markets are closed Monday; attention shifts to Moderna’s results on Feb. 13 and its 2026 forecast.
Moderna’s stock climbed 6.3% Friday, closing at $41.83 as the rally that’s been choppy all week gained traction. Since January 12, shares have surged roughly 24%, boosted by a 17% jump on January 13, followed by a short pullback on January 15.
Investors aren’t focused just on Friday’s headline. They’re sizing up Moderna’s broader challenge: overcoming the post-pandemic drop in COVID vaccine sales and proving it can balance cash flow while advancing new products in late-stage trials.
Wall Street will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, pushing the next U.S. stock-market session to Tuesday. This holiday often results in thinner liquidity and can amplify price swings when trading picks up again.
On Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow closed a bit lower, creating a subdued market environment that made Moderna’s advance in healthcare more noticeable.
Options activity suggested investors were leaning bullish but remained cautious, still buying protection. Calls outnumbered puts during the session, and implied volatility — which gauges expected price swings through option pricing — edged up, according to data referenced by The Fly.
Moderna told investors earlier this week it expects sales of about $1.9 billion in 2025 and trimmed its operating-expense forecast for that year by $200 million, now projecting $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion. The company also said it plans to end 2025 with $8.1 billion in cash, which includes $600 million drawn from a five-year, $1.5 billion loan from Ares Management. It repeated a target of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. “If we’re at $1.9 billion for 2025, up to 10% would be $2.1 billion, although we’re not guiding that officially right now,” CFO James Mock said. Reuters
The company aims to expand its seasonal lineup, with management highlighting anticipated regulatory approvals in 2026 for both a standalone flu vaccine and a COVID-flu combo shot. However, it cautioned these approvals likely won’t arrive in time for the 2026 respiratory season. It also flagged 2026 clinical readouts from programs including a norovirus vaccine and cancer vaccine data in collaboration with Merck.
The forces behind this shift haven’t disappeared. Major vaccine franchises continue to feel the heat from weaker COVID shot demand and shifting uptake trends. Moderna’s revenue still lags well behind its pandemic highs.
The risk to the rally is clear: vaccine demand might drop off quicker than anticipated, regulators could delay approvals, or setbacks in development could push back the pipeline catalysts investors are banking on for higher valuations. Ultimately, cash burn—and how fast management can rein it in—remains the key figure that really counts.
Trading picks up next week, and all eyes will be on whether Friday’s rally sticks after the holiday break. Investors will also monitor if growth stocks sensitive to interest rates continue to attract buying ahead of the Fed’s upcoming policy announcement later this month.
Moderna’s next major event is set for Feb. 13, when it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results. Investors will zero in on any revisions to the 2026 revenue outlook, expense plans, and updates on the timing of regulatory submissions and critical trial readouts.
