Sydney, January 19, 2026, 17:43 AEDT — The market has closed.
- Shares of National Australia Bank slipped as risk-off sentiment weighed on bank stocks.
- Gold miners pushed ahead, but financials fell behind in a weaker ASX session.
- Focus turns to Australia’s jobs data later this week, with major central bank and corporate updates set for February.
Shares of National Australia Bank Ltd dropped 1.1% on Monday, ending the day at A$42.22 after bouncing between A$42.72 and A$42.00. 1
This shift is significant since big banks continue to steer the local index. Today’s rotation was clear-cut: funds flowed into perceived safe havens while leaving rate-sensitive cyclicals behind.
For NAB holders, the focus isn’t just on today’s trading but on the upcoming data that could reshape rate expectations and loan growth forecasts.
Australian shares slipped, with the S&P/ASX 200 finishing down 0.3% at 8,874.5, Reuters reported. Investors sought safety following fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. The financial sector dropped 0.6%, and the big four banks fell between 0.4% and 1.1%. Meanwhile, gold miners jumped 2.9% to hit a record high. “Base metals and banks are victims of this rotation,” said Luke Winchester, portfolio manager at Merewether Capital. 2
The defensive buying was evident throughout markets. In currencies, ANZ’s Khoon Goh noted that spikes in U.S. policy uncertainty usually lead to “dollar weakness,” even when tariffs target other parts of the world. 3
At home, investors are eyeing December’s jobs report due Thursday, which will heavily influence expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming move. According to a Reuters market wrap, the odds of a quarter-point rate hike on Feb. 3 stand at about 25%. The report also pointed out that while “higher-for-longer” rates could boost bank profits, they might also slow lending and increase credit risk. 4
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate target, its key overnight benchmark, is currently set at 3.60%. The next decision is due on Feb. 3. 5
NAB’s next major event is its first-quarter trading update scheduled for Feb. 18, per the bank’s financial calendar. Investors will be watching closely for shifts in net interest margin—the gap between loan earnings and deposit costs—as well as any indicators on arrears, business lending, and deposit competition. 6
The risk is obvious. Should tariff threats turn into reality and sap confidence, banks could face weaker credit demand; a sharp growth slowdown usually pushes bad debts higher. On the other hand, a stronger jobs report might prolong rate pressure, driving up funding costs and intensifying questions about how long households can handle the strain.
NAB and its rivals face another test this week with Thursday’s jobs report. The bigger milestones ahead are the RBA’s decision on Feb. 3 and NAB’s update on Feb. 18.
