SHANGHAI, Jan 20, 2026, 00:24 GMT+8 — Markets have shut for the day.
- On Monday, ICBC’s Class A shares listed in Shanghai slipped 1.05% to close at 7.53 yuan.
- Investors are gearing up for Tuesday’s release of China’s monthly loan prime rate.
- New GDP and property figures pushed banks and credit demand back into the spotlight.
Shares of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd’s Shanghai-listed Class A stock dropped 1.05% to close at 7.53 yuan on Monday. Investors appeared cautious, digesting weaker domestic cues ahead of an important policy announcement due later this week. 1
China is set to keep its benchmark lending rates steady for the eighth month in a row this January, according to a Reuters survey. The one-year and five-year loan prime rates are expected to remain at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, when they’re announced Tuesday. The LPR, determined monthly from bank submissions, influences most new and existing loans, with the five-year rate serving as a crucial benchmark for mortgage costs. 2
Monday brought fresh complexity as China posted 4.5% year-on-year growth for Q4, marking the slowest pace in three years. December retail sales inched up just 0.9%. Frederic Neumann, HSBC’s chief Asia economist, pointed to weak retail sales and fixed asset investment as signals of the economy’s persistent struggles. 3
ICBC’s shares fluctuated between 7.50 yuan and 7.63 yuan throughout the day, opening at 7.60 yuan. The trading volume hit roughly 329 million shares, per data from 6 .
Property stayed a volatile sector for banks. Official data revealed China’s new home prices dropped 0.4% month-on-month in December and slid 2.7% compared to a year earlier—the biggest yearly decline in five months. Jeff Zhang, an equity analyst at Morningstar, warned the weakness “is likely to remain a major drag on China’s growth over the next two to three years.” 4
For lenders such as ICBC, the property downturn hits home in clear terms: it dampens demand for mortgages, puts collateral values under strain, and could drive up credit costs if caution lingers among developers and households.
Regulators caught attention as well. China’s securities watchdog ordered brokers to pull client-dedicated servers from exchange-operated data centres, cutting down speed edges enjoyed by high-frequency traders. Shane Oliver, AMP’s chief economist, noted, “They do want to keep the markets focused on investment, as opposed to speculation.” 5
It might not seem like a major state bank, but ICBC holds significant weight in mainland benchmarks. It often reacts sharply to changes in index flows, leverage, and shifts in overall risk appetite.
Rates act as the more immediate pivot. Keeping the loan prime rate steady supports banks in preserving net interest margins, yet it also shows policymakers prefer targeted tools over broad easing to spur demand.
Growth momentum fading and a deepening property slump could hit banks with slower loan growth and rising impairments. A surprise rate cut might lower borrowing costs, but it would also put pressure on lenders’ margins.
Investors are keeping an eye on other major state lenders like Bank of China and China Construction Bank to see if the sector will be driven more by dividends and balance-sheet health or by shifts in policy.
Tuesday’s loan prime rate setting is the next key trigger. All eyes will be on whether policymakers drop any clues about moving from “steady” to “easier,” especially as fresh growth and housing numbers come in.
