New York, Jan 20, 2026, 06:59 EST — Premarket
- Brent slipped to around $64 as traders digested new tariff threats linked to Greenland
- WTI dropped more steeply with the February contract nearing expiry
- Prices found support after China released growth data and the IMF issued an upgrade
Oil prices held steady early Tuesday as trade-war concerns resurfaced. The jitters came after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened fresh tariffs on European nations tied to his bid to buy Greenland.
Timing is key. Markets are reopening after Monday’s U.S. holiday, with traders weighing whether a fresh wave of tariffs could disrupt growth and hit demand—just as portfolios shift into a new month.
Brent futures for March dipped 11 cents, or 0.17%, settling at $63.83 a barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February dropped 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $58.95 in early London trading. The bigger move in WTI came as the front-month contract approached expiry, often causing exaggerated daily swings when traders shift positions to later contracts. 1
PVM analyst Tamas Varga said Trump’s Greenland tariff threats wouldn’t hit the oil balance right away. He highlighted firmer diesel prices and a stronger global growth outlook as key supports. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that better Chinese data “provided a lift to demand sentiment,” despite ongoing headline risks. 1
Over the weekend, Trump announced the U.S. would slap an extra 10% tariff starting Feb. 1 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Britain. If no agreement on Greenland is struck, that rate would jump to 25% on June 1.
China handed crude bulls a clear boost with its latest numbers. The top global oil importer posted 5.0% economic growth for 2025, while Q4 growth eased to 4.5% year-on-year—both coming in above forecasts. 2
Yet, a few analysts highlighted vulnerabilities beneath the surface. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore, warned that “unless policy pivots more decisively towards households and consumption, growth is likely in the low-4s to mid-4s” by 2026. 2
Support from the macro side was boosted by the IMF, which raised its 2026 global growth forecast and noted the economy’s resilience despite last year’s tariff shock. “We find that global growth remains quite resilient,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters. 3
The dollar’s retreat capped losses in commodities priced in U.S. dollars, making crude more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Early trading saw the dollar index drop as much as 0.3% to 98.841, its lowest level since Jan. 12. 4
Traders stayed alert on Venezuela following Trump’s claim that the U.S. would control the industry after seizing Nicolas Maduro. In physical markets, Vitol reportedly offered Venezuelan oil to Chinese buyers at roughly $5 a barrel below ICE Brent for April delivery, according to trade sources.
OPEC+ continues to rely on voluntary cuts to support prices, signaling it remains ready to tweak output as market dynamics evolve. The next key meeting is set for Feb. 1, when eight producers will reconvene to assess the situation. 5
The downside risk is clear: if tariff threats turn into actual policy or spark retaliation, demand forecasts could quickly deteriorate. This is especially true given refinery margins and consumption are already fragile in the face of growth news. Any unexpected inventory build or supply surge would tighten the squeeze in an already thin market.
Traders will keep an eye on the February WTI contract as it nears expiry Tuesday, along with any impact on the March curve. The next key macro event for crude comes Wednesday with the release of U.S. weekly inventory data.
