London, Jan 20, 2026, 12:19 GMT — Regular session.
- Brent March futures rose 23 cents to $64.17 a barrel by late morning in London; WTI was up 13 cents at $59.57.
- Traders weighed U.S. tariff threats tied to Greenland against firmer growth signals and a weaker dollar.
- Focus turns to U.S. inventory updates and Thursday’s Europe-U.S. political calendar.
Brent crude futures held a small gain on Tuesday, trading near $64 a barrel as investors weighed U.S. tariff threats against Europe over Greenland while a softer dollar and steadier growth expectations limited the downside. Brent March futures gained 23 cents, or 0.36%, to $64.17 a barrel by 1126 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $59.57. 1
The oil market has been swinging between “risk-off” and “risk-on” trades since the weekend, with traders trying to map tariff headlines onto fuel demand. “Any trade war expansion could impact demand,” Rystad analyst Janiv Shah said, after focus shifted from Iran-related supply fears to the Greenland dispute. 2
Earlier, oil firmed in Asia after China’s latest growth numbers soothed demand worries, though attention also stayed on contract mechanics in the U.S. market. Brent was up 19 cents at $64.13 by 0100 GMT, while the WTI February contract — due to expire on Tuesday — traded higher, with activity also moving into the more actively traded March contract. 3
Trade policy remains the wild card, and traders are treating it as a live input into global growth rather than a distant political fight. President Donald Trump has threatened 10% tariffs from Feb. 1 on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, with the duties potentially rising to 25% from June 1, Reuters reported. The same push has included a separate threat of 200% tariffs on French wines and champagnes. 4
On the macro side, the International Monetary Fund’s latest update raised the bar slightly for demand forecasts by nudging up its global growth view. The IMF projected global growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, revised slightly higher from its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, even as it flagged trade policy headwinds. 5
Refiners and product markets were also part of Tuesday’s floor under crude. Diesel prices matter because they feed directly into refinery margins — the profit from turning crude into transport fuels — and firmer diesel pricing can keep crude demand sticky even when the macro picture turns noisy.
Still, there is a downside path, and it does not require a supply shock. A push from Washington for cheaper energy, alongside calls for higher output, risks capping crude if producers add barrels into a market already sensitive to demand scares, Reuters columnist Ron Bousso wrote. 6
For near-term direction, traders will be watching U.S. inventory signals and whether product stocks keep tightening relative to crude. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report lists its next release date as Jan. 22. 7
Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute is also due later on Tuesday, a report that often sets the tone ahead of the government numbers. 8
Beyond data, Thursday’s calendar is crowded. European leaders were expected to discuss options at an emergency summit in Brussels as the Greenland dispute and tariff threats keep markets on edge. 9
