London, January 21, 2026, 12:18 GMT — Regular session
Brent crude futures eased 12 cents to $64.80 a barrel by 11:25 a.m. GMT on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 11 cents, settling at $60.25. Traders cited expectations of rising U.S. inventories and weaker demand outlooks. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore described the Kazakhstan outage as “temporary” and highlighted ongoing “downward pressure” from a likely U.S. crude build. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo flagged concerns over tariff-driven growth slowdowns, while Eurasia Group’s Gregory Brew noted that renewed U.S.-Iran tensions could still support prices. 1
This matters because crude has been jittery, reacting sharply to minor supply-and-demand tweaks. Even a brief disruption in output can push prices up, yet the market often dumps gains if traders suspect demand is weakening and inventories are rising once more.
Tuesday flipped the script. Brent climbed 98 cents, or 1.53%, to settle at $64.92 a barrel, while front-month WTI rose 90 cents, or 1.51%, reaching $60.34. The boost came after Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron, announced a temporary halt in production at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz and Korolev fields due to power distribution issues. “The outage is certainly disruptive for crude flows,” said Ajay Parmar, energy and refining director at ICIS. Still, he called the disruption “temporary” and cautioned that prices might “fall back” if tariff tensions escalate. 2
Supply worries are clashing with a harsher reality: on paper, the oil market isn’t actually tight. The International Energy Agency raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 930,000 barrels per day. But their numbers suggest supply will still outpace demand by roughly 3.69 million bpd. The agency pointed to “bloated balances” as a key factor keeping prices “in check.” 3
Beyond oil, the mood has shifted to caution. Reuters’ wider market wrap highlighted growing anxiety over foreign selling of U.S. assets — the so-called “Sell America” trade — as investors awaited President Donald Trump’s Davos speech. Westpac senior economist Mantas Vanagas noted that policy uncertainty was driving investors to reduce their U.S. exposure. Even oil has felt the impact of this risk-off sentiment, despite a weaker dollar often lending support to commodities priced in the U.S. currency. 4
U.S. inventory figures are set to move markets again, with timing now a key factor. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, plans to release its weekly stockpile report later Wednesday. Meanwhile, official government data is delayed by a day due to a recent U.S. federal holiday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the government’s official source for energy data, plans to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Thursday, January 22. The reports will drop at 12:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. Eastern, after the federal government closes Monday. 5
The market’s current bet faces a clear threat: inventories might swell more than anticipated, or product supplies could stack up, pushing crude prices down as the week closes. Conversely, if the Kazakhstan outage extends beyond forecasts—or if U.S.-Iran tensions escalate suddenly—prices would quickly find support again.
