Why UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock rose today as Obamacare rebates and earnings loom

Why UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock rose today as Obamacare rebates and earnings loom

New York, Jan 22, 2026, 17:37 EST — After-hours

  • Shares of UnitedHealth climbed close to 2% Thursday
  • Attention remained fixed on the insurer’s upcoming rebates for Affordable Care Act members
  • Investors are fixated on UnitedHealth’s results due January 27 and its outlook for 2026

UnitedHealth Group shares closed Thursday up 1.96% at $354.47, outperforming many managed-care peers. Investors reacted to new political and regulatory developments concerning insurance affordability.

Washington’s scrutiny ramped up Thursday as top health insurer execs confronted lawmakers over climbing consumer expenses and market dominance. UnitedHealth CEO Stephen Hemsley told the panel the “cost of healthcare insurance” basically follows the price of healthcare itself. 1

The day before, Hemsley’s prepared testimony revealed UnitedHealth plans to “eliminate and rebate” profits on Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans — commonly known as Obamacare — starting in 2026. This comes after enhanced COVID-era tax credits expire and premiums are expected to surge. KFF projects average premiums will jump to $1,904 in 2026 from $888 in 2025. UnitedHealth also anticipates ACA enrollment will fall by roughly two-thirds. 2

The broader market pushed higher alongside the stock. The Dow finished up 0.63%, the S&P 500 added 0.55%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.91%. A change in tariff news and stronger economic data provided a boost, Reuters reported. 3

Cigna climbed 1.97%, CVS added 1.44%, and Elevance ticked up 0.60% among UnitedHealth’s main rivals. Humana, on the other hand, dropped 1.73%.

UnitedHealth faces its next major checkpoint soon, with full-year 2025 results and 2026 guidance set for release before the market opens on Jan. 27. A conference call will follow at 8 a.m. ET. 4

Traders are focused on whether Thursday’s policy spat remains isolated or begins to affect forecasts. Analysts will scrutinize guidance for any extra costs tied to rebates and how the company intends to handle membership changes in ACA markets.

Investors are watching closely for any news on medical-cost trends — specifically how claims expenses are stacking up against premiums. Insurers spent the past year insisting they can’t control the prices set by hospitals, drugmakers, and other providers.

But the rebates have drawbacks. Giving up ACA profits voluntarily might cap short-term earnings from that business segment. Plus, any shift in federal subsidy rules could swiftly impact enrollment, pricing, and risk pools throughout the marketplace.

The immediate focus is locked in: UnitedHealth’s earnings report and 2026 guidance come Jan. 27. Investors will zero in on any updates about rebate mechanics and enrollment assumptions, which could steer the stock’s direction next. 4

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