New York, January 22, 2026, 18:46 EST — After-hours
Moderna shares surged 4.2% to $51.87 in after-hours trading Thursday, following an earlier jump of about 11% to $55.17 on heavy volume—more than 34 million shares changed hands. CEO Stephane Bancel told Bloomberg TV the company won’t invest in new late-stage (Phase 3) vaccine trials, pointing to growing resistance from U.S. officials. He cautioned that the U.S. market is becoming less dependable. “You cannot make a return on investment if you don’t have access to the U.S. market,” Bancel said. 1
Moderna’s pivot comes amid slumping demand for its COVID vaccines and a pricey pipeline to manage. Cutting back on new Phase 3 vaccine trials could save money, yet it narrows the slate of upcoming products that might help balance out falling revenue.
Moderna’s push into oncology has drawn investor attention, given the scarcity of long-term data in the space. On Tuesday, Moderna and Merck revealed their experimental personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, cut the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 49% over five years when paired with Keytruda. Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen said, “If Moderna can replicate this 49% risk reduction in the much larger phase 3 trial, that bodes well.” UBS’s Michael Yee noted the durability “supports sustained efficacy over many years” but stressed the need for confirmation, with late-stage data expected later this year. 2
Late-stage trials are lengthy, expensive studies aimed at proving a vaccine’s safety and effectiveness before regulators give the green light. When a vaccine company stops new Phase 3 trials, it usually means they want to cut back on costly obligations on their balance sheet.
On Thursday, Moderna stopped short of abandoning vaccines. Instead, it signaled a tighter grip on spending and cast doubt on the U.S. market’s appeal if delays continue and support fades.
The cancer-vaccine project is unique, both in its approach and how investors view it. It hinges on a crucial partner, Merck, and builds on Keytruda, a foundational drug used widely in cancer therapy. This connection could streamline testing and marketing of a new add-on—if the data proves favorable.
Moderna caught the spotlight again this week, propelled more by pipeline news and policy signals than by its daily vaccine sales. The stock tends to spike on headlines before giving back part of those gains.
The bet rests on replication: if the Phase 3 melanoma trial fails to match mid-stage results, expectations could swiftly slide lower. A bigger blow in vaccine development would also limit Moderna’s pipeline of new candidates in the U.S., especially as shifting policies add layers of uncertainty.
Investors want clarity on which Moderna programs will keep funding and how quickly cost cuts roll out. Changes to trial launches, cancellations, or timelines tend to impact cash-burn projections right away.
Moderna plans to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 13. Investors will likely focus on spending priorities and when the pipeline might start driving a bigger share of revenue during the call. 3
