New York, Jan 22, 2026, 19:38 EST — After-hours
- FCX dipped after posting better-than-expected profits, but investors worried about a 2026 sales outlook skewed heavily toward the latter part of the year because of Grasberg’s restart
- Higher copper and gold prices gave results a lift, but the real drivers remain the timing of volume and how quickly mines recover
- Traders are closely watching copper prices while the company aims to hit restart milestones by April
Freeport-McMoRan Inc shares slipped 2.9%, ending Thursday at $58.85, moving away from their 52-week high of $62.13. 1
Copper-linked stocks have fallen after a turbulent stretch, as investors grappled with metal prices and the timing of production. For Freeport, the entire schedule depends on Indonesia.
Freeport reported better-than-expected Q4 profits, but the spotlight stayed on its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The mine, the world’s largest gold producer and second-largest copper source, was hit by a deadly mud rush in September that killed seven workers. CEO Kathleen Quirk acknowledged the severity of the incident, saying on a conference call, “The Grasberg incident was humbling, but our team has risen to the challenge and is dedicated to safely and sustainably restoring our operations.” The company plans to bring back about 85% of Grasberg’s production by the latter half of 2026. On the demand side, growth fueled by AI and defense sectors could push global copper consumption up 50% by 2040. 2
Freeport posted fourth-quarter net income of $406 million, or 28 cents per share, attributable to common stockholders. Adjusted net income was higher, at $688 million, or 47 cents per share. The firm realized copper prices averaging $5.33 per pound, while gold reached $4,078 an ounce. It sold 709 million pounds of copper, producing 640 million pounds during the quarter. Looking to 2026, Freeport expects copper sales around 3.4 billion pounds, with about 60% of those sales coming in the second half. The company forecasts unit net cash costs—copper costs after by-product credits—around $1.75 per pound. Operating cash flow is projected near $8 billion based on assumed prices, climbing to roughly $11 billion if recent prices hold. 3
Traders are zeroing in on the “second-half” weighting. This focus often drags down early-quarter figures and squeezes the buffer for any setbacks if copper prices don’t hold up.
Copper slipped on Thursday, with the LME cash settlement falling to $12,632 a metric ton from $12,898 the previous day, Westmetall data showed. 4
Shares of Southern Copper Corp fell 0.6% on Thursday. 5
Freeport lagged even as the broader market moved higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.55% and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.60%. About 25.4 million FCX shares changed hands, significantly exceeding its 50-day average volume of 14.3 million, MarketWatch data shows. 6
The obvious risk is stumbling on execution. If the Grasberg restart slips or copper prices fall more sharply, cash flow would tighten fast for a miner whose value depends heavily on the metal.
Freeport’s investor presentation lays out a plan to restart Grasberg Block Cave in April, targeting a ramp-up to 100,000 tonnes per day by the second half of 2026. Copper futures on Friday could offer clues on whether FCX manages to find footing ahead of the restart. 7
