NEW YORK, Jan 22, 2026, 19:45 EST — After-hours
- Shares of Intuitive Surgical rose roughly 0.4% in after-hours trading following better-than-expected quarterly results
- The company projects 13%-15% growth in da Vinci procedures by 2026 but warned that tariffs could squeeze margins
- Traders are focused on procedure growth, system placements, and any shifts in tariff assumptions ahead of Friday’s session
Intuitive Surgical shares edged up about 0.4% to $525.81 in volatile after-hours trading Thursday, following a quarterly earnings report that topped Wall Street’s profit and revenue forecasts. The stock fluctuated between $511.73 and $548 as investors digested a 2026 outlook that includes higher tariff expenses—a key concern for a company manufacturing most of its da Vinci instruments and accessories in Mexico. 1
This shift is significant since Intuitive’s “procedure growth”—the tally of surgeries done with its robots—offers a quick snapshot of hospital demand. It also drives the company’s steady stream of recurring sales from instruments, accessories, and service, which typically outlast the one-off robot installations.
Hospitals clearing backlogs and ramping up minimally invasive surgeries have kept demand solid, but investors are jittery about what comes once that boost fades. Now, guidance is where the real debate lies, complicated further by the shadow of tariffs.
Intuitive reported a 19% revenue jump to $2.87 billion for the quarter ending Dec. 31, with adjusted earnings hitting $2.53 per share. The company noted a 17% rise in da Vinci procedures and a 44% surge in Ion procedures. It placed 532 da Vinci systems during the quarter, including 303 of the newest da Vinci 5 models, and expects to close 2025 with 11,106 da Vinci systems installed. Ion’s installed base reached 995. 2
Intuitive confirmed its 2026 financial outlook, projecting global da Vinci procedure growth between 13% and 15%, down from 18% in 2025. The company also expects a non-GAAP gross profit margin in the 67% to 68% range. That figure factors in an estimated tariff impact of 1.2% of revenue, plus or minus 10 basis points — with a basis point equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point. 3
On the earnings call, CFO Jamie Samath noted, “This year, we forecast an impact from tariffs of 1.2% of net revenue,” and cautioned that competition in China has intensified, pointing out that “the tender win ratio was lower in Q4.” 4
The quarter showed strength, yet the company is preparing for slower growth in 2026. The key question: will da Vinci 5 continue driving upgrades without squeezing margins? And can Ion placements bounce back after a weaker quarter?
Competitive pressure is weighing on the scene. Medtronic and Johnson & Johnson continue to advance their robotic surgery platforms, while Intuitive grapples with tougher pricing battles and shifting local preferences in segments of China.
There are obvious risks here. Should hospitals cut back on capital spending or if procedure volumes drop faster than the company’s 13%-15% forecast, that high-margin recurring revenue could take a hit quickly. Plus, Intuitive warned that any expansion or changes in tariffs might have a significant effect on 2026 results.
The first real challenge comes Friday, Jan. 23, during the regular session. Investors will weigh the 2026 procedure and margin outlook, trying to figure out if Thursday’s after-hours volatility was just noise or the beginning of a broader reset.
