LONDON, Jan 23, 2026, 08:59 GMT — Regular session.
- NatWest shares saw minimal movement in early London trading
- Ahead of its annual results, the bank released revised sell-side forecasts
- Investors are focused on rates, profit margins, and how quickly companies are buying back shares
Shares in NatWest Group Plc NWG.L nudged 0.06% higher to roughly 654 pence by 0859 GMT, following fresh analyst forecasts released ahead of next month’s earnings report and additional buyback announcements. The stock fluctuated between 650.2 and 657.6 pence.
NatWest’s latest pre-results “consensus”—a company-compiled snapshot of sell-side estimates—puts 2025 operating profit before tax at £7.49 billion, based on forecasts from 16 analysts. The consensus pegs the net interest margin at 2.32% for 2025, with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.7%, the key capital metric regulators watch. NatWest Group Investors
This is significant as NatWest’s full-year results arrive amid a turbulent climate for UK banks: rate-cut expectations are swinging daily, and investors wonder how long last year’s hefty deposit margins will last. Capital returns also play a key role; a consistent buyback program can support earnings per share even if profits take a hit.
Net interest margin—the difference between what banks earn on loans and what they pay on deposits, relative to their interest-earning assets—is a narrow percentage. Yet, it fuels much of the discussion about bank profits whenever rates shift.
A U.S. filing revealed NatWest repurchased 811,319 shares on Jan. 22 at a volume-weighted average price of 654.46 pence, with individual trades ranging from 645.40 to 663.80 pence. The bank acquired the shares from Merrill Lynch International (Bank of America) and confirmed plans to cancel them.
NatWest bought back 830,691 shares the previous day at an average price of 647.34 pence, according to a London announcement, with plans to cancel them. Both moves took place on the London Stock Exchange under the bank’s current buyback scheme.
Risk appetite remains fragile. UK stocks edged up Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump eased off his Greenland comments and investors clung to optimism over a possible Ukraine deal. The FTSE 100 gained 0.1%, while the FTSE 250 climbed 1.3%.
European stocks dipped on Friday, heading for a weekly drop amid concerns over Greenland-related trade frictions and fresh purchasing managers’ data. Economists at ING noted these surveys “are likely to confirm the ongoing resilience of the euro zone’s gradual recovery despite geopolitical headwinds.” Reuters
Retail sales in Britain climbed 0.4% in December, surpassing predictions and stirring speculation about the Bank of England’s upcoming decision. The Office for National Statistics noted, “Non-store retailers rebounded, with online jewellers confirming renewed demand for precious metals.” Reuters
The downside is clear. Quicker rate cuts would tighten margins, while a slip in jobs or housing could push up credit losses — the income statement item that can shift rapidly for a UK-focused lender.
NatWest’s annual results, due Feb. 13, will drop at 7 a.m. GMT, with investor sessions lined up throughout the morning and afternoon. The bank has flagged it will unveil 2026 guidance and fresh targets for 2028 alongside the numbers.
