London, Jan 23, 2026, 12:08 GMT — Regular session
Brent crude futures jumped on Friday, clawing back some losses from the previous session as traders digested fresh supply concerns. U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning about an “armada” heading toward Iran rattled markets, while production issues lingered in Kazakhstan. By 1026 GMT, Brent for March was up 76 cents, or 1.2%, at $64.82 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate also gained 75 cents, or 1.3%, settling at $60.11. 1
Price moves are crucial since the oil market has been highly reactive to headlines this week. Even a slight change in perceived supply risk can push Brent sharply, especially as the market wrestles with how much geopolitical “risk premium”—the extra cost buyers accept to hedge against disruption—should be factored into prices.
Brent fell $1.18, or 1.8%, to close at $64.06 on Thursday. The drop came after Trump eased off threats concerning Greenland and Iran, while investors noted signs of diplomatic moves regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine. “There is a deflation of risk premium related to the Greenland debacle and Iran supply risk has also been reduced,” said Ole Hansen, chief commodity analyst at Saxo Bank. Tony Sycamore at online broker IG added that prices should hold near $60 a barrel. The selloff accelerated following U.S. data showing crude inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels in the week ending Jan. 16, despite Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser dismissing glut concerns. 2
Supply concerns extend beyond the Middle East. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry announced a special commission is probing a Jan. 18 incident that shut down the massive Tengiz oilfield. Sources suggest the production halt might drag on for another 7-10 days. Following the fire and power outage, Tengizchevroil declared force majeure on CPC Blend shipments, Reuters reported. 3
Force majeure is a contractual clause triggered when deliveries fail due to factors beyond a seller’s control. In oil markets, it often acts as an early warning sign—flashing before buyers actually notice a drop in cargo availability.
Right now, the tug-of-war is obvious: chatter about disruption supports prices, but weaker demand and growing inventories are holding back gains. Traders are also tracking if geopolitical tensions remain elevated enough to sustain the risk premium.
But that could change quickly. Should diplomacy ease the Iran threat or Kazakhstan’s production return faster than expected, Brent might lose its gains — especially if inventories keep growing and the market begins to factor in more abundant supply.
Coming up next for U.S. stock watchers: the Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report hits on Jan. 28. Traders are also waiting for news on the timing of Tengiz’s restart. 4
