New York, January 23, 2026, 09:42 (EST) — Regular session
Intel Corp (INTC) saw its shares tumble 13.7% to $46.86 in early Friday trade, wiping out gains from a rally that had lifted the stock to a multi-year peak. The chipmaker had closed Thursday at $54.32. 1
The drop halts a January surge that pushed Intel up about 47%, on top of last year’s 84% gain, as investors backed CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s turnaround strategy. They’ve also been watching for signs that Intel’s contract chipmaking efforts—foundry services for external clients—can attract new business. Tan mentioned two customers are testing “14A,” the code name for a future manufacturing process. TD Cowen analysts said the rally was fueled more by “the dream” than by immediate facts. Reuters noted the premarket slide would cut roughly $31 billion from Intel’s market value if it holds. 2
Intel late Thursday projected first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with adjusted earnings expected to break even—both figures falling short of analyst estimates of $12.51 billion and 5 cents per share, per LSEG data. CEO Tan admitted to analysts that the company was “disappointed” by its inability to fully supply server CPUs paired with Nvidia’s AI chips. He noted that yields on Intel’s new 18A process are improving but still lag behind internal targets. Michael Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital, described the situation as “supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained.” 3
Intel reported a 4% drop in fourth-quarter revenue, down to $13.7 billion, with adjusted earnings hitting 15 cents per share. The data center and AI segment saw a 9% gain, reaching $4.7 billion, but the PC client group fell 7%, totaling $8.2 billion. 4
Investors remain focused on Intel’s upcoming “Panther Lake” PC chips, slated for release in the second half of the year, hoping they’ll regain ground against AMD and Arm Holdings in laptops and desktops. Gabelli Funds analyst Ryuta Makino highlighted that the AI-driven surge in server demand could push server CPU prices up by “double-digit” percentages—a rare upside in an otherwise saturated market. 5
On the Street, Jefferies predicted the supply shortage would probably hit its low point in March. Oppenheimer sees the constraints easing by the second quarter. Bernstein didn’t hold back, accusing Intel of having “woefully misjudged” the server cycle, caught flat-footed by its capacity. 6
Risk assets face a tricky backdrop. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate steady between 3.5% and 3.75% at next week’s meeting. Yet Nomura economist Jeremy Schwartz warned that inflation “looks like it’s heading back up,” which keeps investors cautious about any changes in the Fed’s messaging. 7
Intel is also grappling with a hardware issue beyond its control. A worldwide shortage of memory chips has driven up costs for essential PC and server components. Intel’s CFO has cautioned that higher prices might dampen demand right when the company is aiming to convert a spike in server CPU orders into actual shipments. 8
Intel’s stock has climbed about 50% this month through Thursday’s close, shifting investor attention to whether the company can turn tight supply into smoother execution as the year begins. According to Investopedia, Intel expects supply constraints to hit their lowest point in Q1, with improvements coming later—a timeline now taking precedence over the recent revenue beat. 9
The next key date is the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on January 27-28, which might shift rate expectations for tech and semiconductors. Until then, Intel faces a more straightforward challenge: can it produce enough chips to satisfy demand without further margin pressure? 10
