New York, Jan 23, 2026, 10:05 EST — Regular session
- Intel shares plunged following a weak forecast for the upcoming quarter and ongoing supply issues with its data-center chips
- This move puts pressure on a crowded semiconductor turnaround trade just as earnings season heats up
- Investors are eyeing next week’s Fed decision alongside key tech earnings for cues.
Intel (INTC.O) shares plunged 15.7% to $45.79 in early Friday trading after the chipmaker flagged supply chain issues that could weigh on near-term results. The news dragged U.S. stocks lower at the open. The Dow fell 133 points by 9:30 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 slipped slightly, and the Nasdaq held steady. (Reuters)
The stock sold off despite Intel beating December quarter estimates, underscoring how forward guidance often carries more weight than past results. Investors had driven shares up, betting AI-related data-center demand would boost Intel’s core operations. But the company’s outlook revived doubts about whether it can move quickly enough to capitalize. (Barron’s)
The timing couldn’t be more awkward. Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting coincides with a heavy slate of quarterly earnings, as traders look for signs that AI investments are boosting profits, not just capital expenditures. Markets have been volatile, rattled by President Donald Trump’s comments on Greenland and tariff threats. Still, Yung-Yu Ma at PNC suggested the “acute phase” of this week’s turmoil is likely behind us. Meanwhile, Franklin Templeton strategist Chris Galipeau cautioned that “the earnings bar had better be met.” (Reuters)
Intel’s latest figures painted a mixed picture. The company reported $13.7 billion in revenue and 15 cents a share in adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter. Yet, its guidance for the next quarter called for revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with adjusted profits expected to remain flat. CFO David Zinsner warned, “We expect our available supply to be at its lowest level in Q1 before improving in Q2 and beyond.” (Intel Corporation)
The issue behind the forecast is supply, not demand. Intel reported it couldn’t keep up with demand for its server chips powering AI data centers, sending shares down roughly 13% in after-hours trading. CEO Lip-Bu Tan admitted to analysts he was “disappointed” the company fell short of meeting demand. Meanwhile, Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital, described the turnaround as “supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained,” warning this dynamic could slow a financial rebound despite strong orders. (Reuters)
Friday’s selloff looked like a necessary reset after a sharp rally. Intel had jumped 47% in January before the pullback, and Reuters calculations showed the drop could erase over $35 billion in market value if it sticks. TD Cowen analysts said the surge was fueled more by “the dream” than by near-term fundamentals. Bernstein flagged a “woefully misjudged” capacity setup as demand for data-center chips gained pace. (Reuters)
Not all chip stocks fell alongside Intel. AMD climbed 3.8%, while Nvidia added 1.6% in early trading, highlighting that investors continue to differentiate winners and losers in semiconductors despite AI news driving the sector’s swings.
Intel faces clear, immediate risks. Analysts point to bottlenecks and yield issues as the company scales up newer manufacturing processes. On top of that, a memory-chip shortage and rising component costs could dampen demand in PCs, Intel’s core market. Competition remains fierce too, with AMD and Qualcomm gaining ground in data-center and client chips, even as Intel works to stabilize its contract chipmaking, or foundry, business. (Financial Times)
Intel filed its outlook and earnings release with regulators. On its investor relations page, there’s a Jan. 22 current report (8‑K) linked to those results. (Intel Corporation)
Investors are now focusing less on slogans and more on tangible results: Can Intel ease the server-chip shortages during the first quarter? Will margins hold steady as supply tightens? And can the company demonstrate genuine demand from external customers for its upcoming manufacturing nodes?
After Intel, all eyes shift to the Fed. The central bank’s rate-setting committee convenes Jan. 27-28, with a policy announcement set for 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jan. 28. A press conference follows at 2:30 p.m. (Federal Reserve)
