New York, Jan 23, 2026, 10:05 EST — Regular session
- Intel shares tumbled after the company issued a lackluster forecast for the next quarter and continued to grapple with supply problems in its data-center chip segment
- This shift ramps up pressure on an already crowded semiconductor turnaround trade right as earnings season kicks off
- Next week’s Fed decision and major tech earnings are drawing investors’ attention.
Intel (INTC.O) shares dropped sharply, tumbling 15.7% to $45.79 in early Friday trading after the chipmaker warned that supply chain problems could hit near-term results. The setback weighed on U.S. stocks at the open. By 9:30 a.m. ET, the Dow was down 133 points, the S&P 500 edged slightly lower, while the Nasdaq remained flat. 1
The stock dropped even though Intel exceeded December quarter expectations, highlighting how forward guidance usually matters more than past performance. Shares had climbed on optimism that AI-driven data-center demand would lift Intel’s main business. Yet, the company’s forecast raised fresh questions about its ability to pivot fast enough to seize those opportunities. 2
The timing is tricky. Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting lines up with a flood of quarterly earnings reports, as traders search for proof that AI spending is actually driving profits, not just capital outlays. Markets have swung wildly, shaken by President Donald Trump’s remarks on Greenland and tariff threats. Still, Yung-Yu Ma at PNC said the “acute phase” of this week’s turmoil is probably over. On the other hand, Franklin Templeton strategist Chris Galipeau warned that “the earnings bar had better be met.” 3
Intel’s latest results delivered a mixed bag. The chipmaker posted $13.7 billion in revenue and 15 cents per share in adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter. But its outlook for the next quarter projects revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with adjusted earnings expected to hold steady. CFO David Zinsner cautioned, “We expect our available supply to be at its lowest level in Q1 before improving in Q2 and beyond.” 4
The problem behind the forecast lies in supply, not demand. Intel said it struggled to keep pace with demand for its AI data center server chips, knocking shares down about 13% in after-hours trading. CEO Lip-Bu Tan told analysts he was “disappointed” that the company couldn’t meet demand. At the same time, Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital, called the situation “supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained,” cautioning this could stall a financial rebound despite strong order flow. 5
Friday’s selloff appeared to be a needed cooldown after Intel’s 47% rally in January. Reuters calculations suggest the decline could wipe out more than $35 billion in market value if it holds. TD Cowen analysts described the earlier surge as driven more by “the dream” than by immediate fundamentals. Meanwhile, Bernstein called the company’s capacity plans “woefully misjudged” as demand for data-center chips accelerates. 6
Not every chip stock dipped with Intel. AMD jumped 3.8%, and Nvidia rose 1.6% in early trading. This shows investors are still picking winners and losers in semiconductors, even as AI news fuels volatility across the sector.
Intel is staring down immediate challenges. Analysts flag bottlenecks and yield problems as the company tries to ramp up its latest manufacturing processes. Adding to the pressure, a shortage of memory chips and rising costs for components threaten to cool demand in PCs, Intel’s bread-and-butter. Competition is heating up too—AMD and Qualcomm are making inroads in data-center and client chips, even as Intel pushes to steady its contract chipmaking, or foundry, operations. 7
Intel has submitted its earnings release and outlook to regulators. The company’s investor relations site features a Jan. 22 current report (8‑K) tied to these figures. 8
Investors are shifting their attention from slogans to hard facts: Will Intel manage to relieve server-chip shortages in the first quarter? Can margins remain stable amid tightening supply? And crucially, can the company prove there’s real demand from outside customers for its upcoming manufacturing nodes?
With Intel behind us, attention now turns to the Fed. The central bank’s rate-setting panel meets Jan. 27-28. Their policy decision is due at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jan. 28, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. 9
