New York, Jan 23, 2026, 16:12 EST — After-hours
Intel shares plunged about 17% on Friday, closing at $45.11. The drop came after a bleak quarterly outlook and fresh signs that supply chain issues are still dragging on.
The drop ended a strong January streak that had pushed Intel up roughly 47% this month, following an 84% surge in 2025. Should the slide continue, the chipmaker could lose over $35 billion in market value. TD Cowen analysts said the rally was driven more by “the dream” than by near-term fundamentals. Bernstein also highlighted a server upcycle Intel “woefully misjudged” in terms of capacity. 1
This is significant because the trade hinged on a simple assumption: AI data-center growth would boost demand for Intel’s standard server CPUs, which typically work alongside Nvidia’s leading GPUs. “In the short term, I’m disappointed that we are not able to fully meet the demand in our markets,” CEO Lip-Bu Tan told analysts. CFO David Zinsner noted cloud customers “were all a little bit caught off guard” by how rapidly demand shifted. 2
Intel posted $13.7 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter and is forecasting first-quarter sales between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion. The company anticipates a first-quarter EPS of $(0.21) attributable to Intel, with a non-GAAP EPS at $0.00 — a measure that strips out certain items Intel says cloud the underlying trend. “We expect our available supply to be at its lowest level in Q1 before improving in Q2 and beyond,” said Zinsner. At the same time, Tan emphasized Intel’s push to boost supply to keep pace with customer demand. 3
Intel filed a Form 8-K on Thursday, revealing its fourth-quarter earnings and providing a forecast for the first quarter. The earnings report was included as an exhibit. 4
On Friday, Intel dropped its annual report on Form 10-K, giving investors a heftier document to sift through after the stock’s sharp moves. 5
The selloff has Intel back in a familiar spot: under pressure to turn demand into real shipments and profits, not just spin a good story. This task gets harder as rivals catch up in PCs and servers, while Intel wrestles with significant manufacturing changes.
The risk is obvious. If the supply shortage drags on longer than Intel’s management and analysts expect, the company could lose out on valuable data-center revenue. Meanwhile, struggles with fresh product launches and manufacturing “yields”—the rate of functional chips per silicon wafer—may keep margins under strain.
Traders are keeping a close eye on whether supply tightens up heading into the second quarter, and if Intel’s capex and capacity plans really match the demand it’s projecting. Meanwhile, the hunt continues for clear signs of outside foundry customers.
Intel plans to report Q1 earnings on April 23, according to Yahoo Finance’s earnings calendar. Investors are keen to see updated figures on supply and profit margins. 6
