New York, January 23, 2026, 20:18 EST — Market closed
- ISRG slipped 0.35% on Friday, with investors zeroing in on the 2026 procedure-growth forecast and concerns over tariff risks
- Fourth-quarter revenue increased 19%, with da Vinci 5 placements up, though Ion placements declined
- FDA clearance for the da Vinci 5 in select cardiac procedures injects a new catalyst ahead of next week
Intuitive Surgical shares dipped 0.35% to end Friday at $523.99, as investors digested the company’s 2026 forecast following its recent quarterly report. (MarketScreener)
Why it matters now: procedure growth — the tally of surgeries performed with Intuitive’s systems — is the key demand indicator investors track. It fuels recurring sales of instruments, accessories, and service, extending well beyond just initial system installations.
The 2026 guidance now stands as the key focus heading into next week. The company also highlighted tariffs as a threat to margins, warning that those cost fluctuations can quickly impact estimates.
Intuitive reported its fourth-quarter revenue climbed 19% to $2.87 billion, with non-GAAP earnings hitting $2.53 per share, excluding stock-based compensation and similar items. Procedures worldwide using its da Vinci and Ion platforms grew roughly 18%. The company installed 532 da Vinci units during the quarter, including 303 of the newer da Vinci 5 models. Ion device placements dropped to 42 from 69 the previous year. Looking ahead to 2026, Intuitive projects da Vinci procedure volume will rise between 13% and 15%, while non-GAAP gross margins are expected to land between 67% and 68%. That forecast factors in a tariff headwind estimated at around 1.2% of revenue, with the company cautioning that additional tariff shifts “could be material.” (GlobeNewswire)
This week brought a new boost: the FDA approved the da Vinci 5 system for multiple cardiac procedures, including coronary artery bypass graft and mitral valve repair and replacement, according to Medical Device and Diagnostic Industry. CEO Dave Rosa described the launch as a “measured rollout” for cardiac applications. BTIG analysts tagged Intuitive as the “clear leader,” even as competitors Medtronic and Johnson & Johnson ramp up their own robotics programs. (Medical Device and Diagnostic Industry)
Intuitive raised a flag Friday about its scale, highlighting that over 20 million patients worldwide have had surgery using da Vinci systems. Rosa credited this milestone to the commitment of surgeons and care teams across the globe. (GlobeNewswire)
Wall Street quickly adjusted its outlook following the report. Bernstein analyst Lee Hambright bumped his price target to $750 from $740. On the other hand, Evercore ISI’s Vijay Kumar lowered his target to $550 from $580, Benzinga reported. (Benzinga)
As markets open Monday, attention will zero in on whether the 13%-15% procedure-growth forecast sets a fresh baseline for 2026 revenue projections. Traders will also weigh if da Vinci 5 installations can counterbalance the slower pace suggested by that range. On top of all that, the impact of tariffs will factor heavily into the calculations.
The risk is clear: if procedure growth slows more than expected—or if hospitals delay capital spending—both instrument demand and margins could take a hit simultaneously. A larger-than-anticipated tariff impact would only add to the strain, and any competitor gaining momentum could quickly shift the landscape.
Monday’s U.S. session (Jan. 26) is next on the calendar. Traders will focus on initial estimate revisions and see if shifts in cardiac clearance and tariff assumptions reshape Wall Street’s 2026 outlook.
