New York, Jan 23, 2026, 20:43 EST — Market closed
- Caterpillar shares dropped 3.4% on Friday to close at $626.62.
- Some analysts are raising their targets ahead of the Jan. 29 results, though not all investors are jumping on the bandwagon.
- Next week brings a Fed decision, adding uncertainty for cyclical industrial stocks.
Caterpillar shares dropped sharply on Friday, ending the day down 3.4% at $626.62. A late-week rally faded as investors took profits ahead of the earnings report due next Thursday.
The timing is crucial. Next week brings a Federal Reserve meeting amid a packed earnings schedule, and investors haven’t hesitated to slam anything that’s “good, but not good enough.” “It’s been a short but steep roller-coaster ride,” Yung‑Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at PNC Financial Services Group, told Reuters. 1
Caterpillar’s slide weighed heavily on the Dow, ranking among the biggest losers on Friday alongside Goldman Sachs, MarketWatch reported. 2
Activity in the machinery sector wasn’t limited to CAT. Deere slipped 1.5%, while CNH Industrial also declined 1.5% during the session, according to MarketWatch data. The broader market, meanwhile, showed little movement. 3
Analysts moved quickly after the earnings release. Barclays lifted its price target on Caterpillar to $610 from $555 but held on to an “Equal Weight” rating. The firm noted that companies poised to gain from interest-rate cuts “still reign supreme” and cautioned that initial 2026 forecasts might prove “conservative.” 4
Wells Fargo raised its price target to $702 from $675 and maintained an Overweight rating, citing a “supply-driven recovery” in machinery that’s gaining momentum and better cash conversion. The update was reported in a separate note by TheFly. 5
Oppenheimer lifted its price target to $700 from $645, keeping an Outperform rating intact. The firm highlighted changing macro trends influencing industrial stocks as the quarter unfolds. 6
Caterpillar announced this month it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Thursday, Jan. 29. Investors will be watching closely for guidance on 2026 demand in construction, mining, and energy sectors, as well as the company’s backlog—orders yet to be filled that could indicate whether demand is strengthening or weakening. 7
Caterpillar’s stock is hitting extremes on both ends. This month, it hovered close to the peak of its 52-week range, following a rally that’s squeezed out much room for a conservative outlook. 8
Rates remain a key factor. The Fed’s policy meeting is set for Jan. 27–28, with the decision and press conference scheduled for Wednesday, Jan. 28, per the central bank’s official calendar. 9
The risk scenario remains clear: a softer stance on dealer orders, slumping backlog numbers, or cautious margin forecasts could push Friday’s dip beyond routine pre-earnings selling. Caterpillar’s Jan. 29 earnings release is the next key event, offering the first in-depth outlook for 2026.
