London, Jan 24, 2026, 08:55 GMT — Market closed.
- NatWest shares ended Friday’s session at 646.6 pence, slipping roughly 1%.
- The lender announced yet another round of buybacks, while Norges Bank cut back its stake.
- Investors are turning their attention to UK rate signals and NatWest’s annual results, due February 13.
NatWest Group Plc (NWG.L) ended Friday’s session at 646.6 pence, slipping 1.0% from the day before. The share price fluctuated between 645.15 and 661.50 pence during trading, with roughly 11.3 million shares exchanged. 1
London markets are closed for the weekend, leaving investors to face familiar pressure points when trading resumes: capital returns and the direction of interest rates. NatWest finds itself right at the intersection of these two factors.
This is crucial since a bank’s earnings hinge on slight changes in the net interest margin—the difference between loan income and deposit costs—and on how much capital it can allocate to dividends and buybacks without unsettling regulators.
NatWest released an updated sell-side consensus on Jan. 22, forecasting operating profit before tax at roughly £7.49 billion for 2025, climbing to around £8.02 billion in 2026. The report also projects a group net interest margin of 2.32% in 2025, increasing to 2.47% in 2026. Expected credit losses are set to rise next year, with the loan impairment rate moving up to 0.23% from 0.18%. The consensus highlighted that Basel 3.1 changes could boost risk-weighted assets—used in capital ratio calculations—by about £8.3 billion on average starting 2027, potentially squeezing capital headroom. 2
The broader market provided little support heading into the close. Britain’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.07% on Friday, wrapping up the week in the red. Banks weighed heavily, dragged down by fresh geopolitical tensions that dampened risk appetite. “Gold ostensibly remains the preferred portfolio hedge amid ongoing geopolitical risk,” said Nuveen strategist Laura Cooper. 3
NatWest repurchased 821,613 shares on Jan. 23, paying a volume-weighted average price of 649.75 pence. The shares traded between 645.20 and 657.40 pence during the buyback. The company plans to cancel these shares. After settlement, NatWest will hold 219,045,601 shares in treasury, with 7,993,185,822 shares issued excluding treasury stock. 4
Buybacks often boost earnings per share by cutting the number of shares outstanding. But they can also magnify price swings: if the outlook sours, investors scramble to know the fate of the buyback programme.
A separate filing revealed Norges Bank cut its stake to 2.886470% of voting rights, totaling 922,968,844 votes, down from 3.063360%. The threshold was crossed on Jan. 22 and reported to the issuer the following day, Jan. 23. 5
Traders are focused on whether the narrative remains straightforward — consistent buybacks and stable margins — or shifts toward volatility. The consensus forecasts rates will gradually decline, though unevenly, while credit costs creep higher.
Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene said wage growth appears to be strengthening once more and suggested the recent slowdown “may have run its course,” according to the Guardian. Such signals could shift expectations on rate cuts, impacting bank margins and mortgage demand. 6
Risks lurk at both ends of the rate spectrum. Quicker cuts might tighten margins, while a drawn-out easing cycle could strain borrowers, driving impairment charges above estimates—especially if unemployment climbs or the housing market falters.
The immediate focus is on how bond yields and risk assets react once Europe reopens Monday. NatWest usually follows the sector’s lead when macro headlines dominate trading.
The Bank of England’s next rate decision comes on Feb. 5. NatWest plans to release its annual results at 7 a.m. GMT on Feb. 13, followed by a management presentation that same morning. Investors will focus on 2026 guidance and the scale of capital returns, watching closely to see if the buyback pace continues. 7
