Shanghai, Jan 25, 2026, 03:07 (GMT+8) — Market closed
- Agricultural Bank of China’s A-shares ended Friday at 6.75 yuan, slipping 0.88%.
- A cautious stance on China equities is clashing with new data on capital flows and investment.
- Attention next week turns to China’s PMI data and the Fed’s upcoming decision.
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd’s Shanghai-traded Class A shares (601288) closed Friday down 0.88% at 6.75 yuan, as mainland markets remained closed for the weekend. 1
The next session kicks off with investors eyeing whether the exodus from China equities will continue. BofA Global Research reported a record $49.2 billion outflow from Chinese equity funds in the week ending Wednesday, marking the largest withdrawal ever from global stock funds. 2
Signs of a sluggish real economy came through again. China’s commerce ministry reported that foreign direct investment dipped 9.5% in 2025 compared to the previous year, landing at 747.7 billion yuan. This figure is closely watched by banks, as it influences credit demand and risk appetite. 3
On Friday, Agricultural Bank kicked off trading at 6.80 yuan, fluctuated between 6.73 and 6.86, and closed at 6.75. The session saw 395,974,110 shares change hands, per Yahoo Finance. 4
Policy rates remain a key focus for the bank trade. On Jan. 20, China held its benchmark lending rates steady, with the one-year loan prime rate staying at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%. This unchanged stance keeps discussions around margins ongoing. 5
“I’m not expecting broad-based stimulus at this stage,” said Jeff Ng, head of Asia macro strategy at SMBC, this week. His comment highlights the balancing act for major state lenders: targeted measures may boost activity, but won’t shift the rate environment overnight. 6
On Friday, the bank issued a service notice announcing planned maintenance on its production systems scheduled for Jan. 24-25. 7
Agricultural Bank ranks among China’s “Big Five” state-owned lenders. Traders often view these names, including ICBC and China Construction Bank, more for their dividend income and policy links than as pure growth plays.
There’s also a clearer risk to consider. Should property-linked troubles resurface or credit expenses climb, the appeal of dividends could fade fast; meanwhile, a more aggressive easing cycle would squeeze net interest margins—the gap between loan earnings and deposit costs.
Data next week could push sentiment either way. China’s official PMI numbers drop Jan. 31, followed by the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Feb. 2. PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion—it’s a diffusion index. 8
Global rates offshore are shifting, too. The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its policy statement Wednesday, Jan. 28. Even if local updates stay quiet, this event could still ripple through Asian yields and bank valuations. 9
Shanghai’s reopening on Monday will put Agricultural Bank investors on alert for two key signals: a slowdown in equity fund outflows and any impact from the Jan. 28 Fed decision alongside the Jan. 31 China PMI data. These factors could reshape the rate-and-growth story that’s kept bank shares stuck.
