Hong Kong, Jan 25, 2026, 08:07 HKT — The market has shut down.
- SMIC ended Friday’s session at HK$78.10, marking a 0.3% gain.
- Nvidia’s CEO is in Shanghai amid Beijing’s ongoing decision over whether to permit sales of the company’s H200 AI chip, following reports that customs blocked its entry into China.
- Traders are eyeing Monday’s reopen, with China’s official PMI data set for Jan. 31 and the Fed decision coming on Jan. 28.
Shares of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (0981.HK) are set to draw attention when Hong Kong markets open Monday, after Reuters revealed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was spotted in Shanghai. The visit comes as Beijing considers whether to approve sales of Nvidia’s H200 AI chip to Chinese buyers. Reuters also reported that Chinese authorities have instructed customs agents to block the H200 from entering China, though it remains unclear if this is a formal ban or a temporary move. SMIC closed Friday at HK$78.10, up 0.3%. 1
Why it matters now: SMIC stands as China’s largest contract chipmaker and a crucial barometer for Beijing’s efforts to develop a homegrown semiconductor supply chain amid tightening U.S. limits on advanced chipmaking equipment. Shifts in the messaging around foreign AI chips can quickly ripple through China’s entire chip industry—from designers to foundries—impacting demand, pricing leverage, and which players are allowed to export into the country. 2
The move comes ahead of a hectic week for risk assets, known for swift position cuts on policy news. On Friday, Hong Kong’s tech index dipped, with chip stocks showing mixed results; SMIC gained ground despite weakness in several other chip shares, while Hua Hong Semiconductor declined. 3
Global chip sentiment remains unsettled. Nvidia’s Huang has highlighted the massive scale of AI infrastructure investments, while Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called Davos “all about AI Revolution,” pointing to geopolitical tensions even as funds continue flowing into the space. 4
SMIC investors face a straightforward dilemma: will the H200 issue turn into a firm policy, or will it dissolve into yet another wave of uncertainty that keeps buyers hesitant? Either scenario keeps the spotlight on China’s homegrown chip push — and on the firms expected to shoulder more responsibility if foreign supplies grow scarcer.
Positioning is another key factor. The stock often acts as a gauge for “local substitution” trades, which can exaggerate reactions to light news—particularly at Monday’s open when weekend headlines stack up.
However, bulls face a clear risk: if Beijing greenlights the H200 and supply resumes as usual, the “benefit domestic” story loses steam. SMIC also remains hampered by technology limits that giants like TSMC and Samsung have already overcome, putting a ceiling on how fast it can grab market share in cutting-edge chips.
Setting aside sector news, macro data might take on extra importance. China’s National Bureau of Statistics has the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) scheduled for release on Jan. 31. This factory activity gauge often shifts market expectations on policy moves and demand outlooks. 5
Overseas, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting set for Jan. 27–28. Markets are bracing for any signal of a rate path change that might weigh on high-duration tech stocks, including those in Asia. 6
Hong Kong reopens Monday, and traders will be keenly eyeing any clearer word from Chinese officials on Nvidia’s H200 shipments. They’ll also watch to see if SMIC’s shares continue ignoring the broader chip sector’s slump. The next major economic data point arrives with China’s PMI on Jan. 31.
