New York, Jan 25, 2026, 05:20 EST — Market closed
Intel (INTC.O) shares ended the day down 17%, closing at $45.07. Roughly 295 million shares traded hands during the session, putting the chipmaker in a tough spot heading into the new week.
The selloff comes at a tricky time for Intel. The stock had been riding a turnaround narrative, but Friday’s drop brought the focus sharply back to fundamentals: can Intel deliver enough product, and can it maintain its margins while doing so.
Late Thursday, Intel projected first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, falling short of analysts’ $12.51 billion consensus. The chipmaker said it’s struggling to keep up with demand for its AI data center server chips. CEO Lip-Bu Tan told analysts, “In the short term, I’m disappointed that we are not able to fully meet the demand in our markets.” Meanwhile, Running Point Capital CIO Michael Schulman noted Intel’s turnaround “remains supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained.” 1
Intel reported fourth-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion, down 4% year-over-year, with a loss of 12 cents per share. On a non-GAAP basis, earnings came in at 15 cents per share. Finance chief David Zinsner noted, “We expect our available supply to be at its lowest level in Q1 before improving in Q2 and beyond.” 2
Traders will be watching that supply line closely each day next week. Should Intel suggest the shortage persists, investors are likely to see first-quarter guidance as a baseline rather than a temporary hurdle.
Several analysts suggested the pre-earnings surge was fueled more by “the dream” than by immediate facts, pointing out that Intel is already running its factories at full tilt yet still falling short. Jefferies expects the supply crunch to hit bottom in March, while Oppenheimer predicts easing constraints by Q2. The latter also warned of potential headwinds for Intel’s core business, as rising memory prices could dampen PC demand. 3
Intel is scrambling to hold its ground against rivals. Nvidia dominates the AI chip space, while AMD continues to push hard in PCs and server processors — crucial markets Intel must defend as it works through supply issues.
The downside is clear. If manufacturing yields—the percentage of usable chips per silicon wafer—don’t get better, or if the PC market weakens beyond forecasts, Intel might miss its targets and see margins squeezed further.
The longer-term story remains critical. Intel’s foundry effort—building chips for outside companies—depends on landing major clients to move from evaluations to actual orders. That transition often takes several quarters before it starts reflecting in the revenue.
Intel filed its results and forward guidance in a Form 8-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Jan. 22. 4
Trading kicks back in on Monday, Jan. 26, putting the spotlight on fresh analyst revisions following the recent outlook reset. Investors will be watching closely to see if the stock can steady itself after Friday’s drop.
