AMSTERDAM, Jan 25, 2026, 16:30 (CET) — Market closed.
- ASML closed Friday in Amsterdam at 1,178.20 euros, marking a 0.15% gain.
- Before the earnings release, Morgan Stanley maintained ASML as a top pick, highlighting strength in memory and foundry spending.
- ASML is set to release its Q4 and full-year results on Jan. 28, followed by management briefings the same day.
ASML Holding NV kicks off the new week with a key test looming, having ended Friday at 1,178.20 euros on Euronext Amsterdam, edging up 0.15%. Across the Atlantic, its Nasdaq shares last traded near $1,389, slipping roughly 0.4% from Thursday’s close. 1
The timing is crucial since ASML’s report often sets the early earnings tone for European semiconductor stocks. It stands out as one of the few firms that can reveal, with a single figure, whether chipmakers are still ordering new factory equipment or just holding back for another quarter.
Traders tend to focus on “bookings” — the dollar amount of new orders secured during the quarter — rather than shipped sales. Bookings offer a real-time glimpse into capital spending, particularly for cutting-edge foundry projects and memory upgrades linked to AI servers.
Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Lee Simpson, are sticking with wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) makers as their top picks, keeping ASML and ASM International in the spotlight. “Into the print we favour our Top Picks ASML and ASMI,” they said, highlighting the DRAM cycle—a key memory chip for servers and PCs—as a major driver of equipment demand. The bank also expects ASML’s order book to improve in the December quarter compared to Q3 and raised its price target for ASML to €1,400. 2
ASML will release its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings on Wednesday, Jan. 28. The company plans to issue the press release at 0700 CET, hold a press conference at 1100 CET, and follow up with an investor call at 1500 CET featuring CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen. 3
Those tracking dividends should note the date. ASML’s investor page reveals an interim dividend announcement slated for Jan. 28. The Amsterdam ex-dividend date is Feb. 9, with payments scheduled for Feb. 18. 4
Beyond individual stocks, the week kicks off packed: major U.S. tech earnings and a Federal Reserve policy meeting loom. These events could swiftly alter forecasts for AI spending and, in turn, chip equipment demand. 5
During the ASML call, investors are expected to push for details on the pace of China exposure decline and if order timing is becoming more uneven. They’ll also watch closely for signs that the backlog — the work booked but still unshipped — is either accelerating or being delayed.
Peers will factor in as well. ASML frequently moves in close sync with other chip equipment makers and European semiconductor stocks when capex is being reevaluated, despite differences in their end-markets.
Risk cuts both ways. A weaker bookings figure or cautious remarks about 2026 customer budgets might signal a spending pause, not just routine timing fluctuations — and that can swiftly dent valuations, especially with the stock close to recent peaks.
The next catalyst is locked in: ASML’s earnings drop Wednesday, with two management sessions that same day. Investors will zero in on order momentum heading into 2026.
