New York, Jan 25, 2026, 12:27 ET — Market closed.
- Intel’s steep drop on Friday has pushed chip stocks back into a “can you deliver?” spotlight.
- Nvidia’s CEO is currently in China while Beijing decides if the H200 AI chip will be allowed into the market.
- Traders enter Monday focused on whether selling will continue and looking for new cues from tech earnings.
U.S. semiconductor shares head into Monday with Intel feeling the heat after a sharp drop, as Nvidia deals with renewed scrutiny in China over a crucial AI chip.
The sector has stood out as a clear indicator of the AI trade in the market. As big tech earnings approach and policy risks resurface, investors are demanding concrete updates on revenue and supply in the short term, rather than just long-term projections.
Friday’s close set the tone. Intel dropped 17% to $45.07, dragging the iShares Semiconductor ETF down 1.1%. Nvidia climbed 1.5% to $187.67, and AMD rose 2.3% to $259.68. Taiwan Semiconductor’s U.S.-listed shares gained 2.3%, while Broadcom edged down 1.7%.
Intel’s shares tumbled after it issued a weaker-than-expected outlook, highlighting ongoing supply constraints—a key challenge as the company works to regain trust among AI data-center clients. TD Cowen analysts said the recent rally was driven more by “the dream” than by solid fundamentals. Bernstein slammed Intel for “woefully misjudging” the server cycle, with capacity “caught massively off guard.” The company’s CFO, however, expects supply to improve in the second quarter, and both Jefferies and Oppenheimer analysts see easing bottlenecks from March onward. If losses persist, Intel could shed over $35 billion in market value, according to Reuters. 1
Markets were on edge heading into the weekend. The Dow slipped 0.58% on Friday, while the S&P 500 held steady and the Nasdaq nudged up 0.28%. Investors are bracing for a heavy slate of earnings from the so-called Magnificent Seven. “Going into results, we’re going to be in a ‘show-me’ period,” said Julian McManus, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, telling Reuters he didn’t view Intel as part of the “haves.” 2
Nvidia’s exposure to China remains a hot topic. CEO Jensen Huang was in Shanghai on Saturday, according to sources who spoke to Reuters, and is set to visit Beijing, Shenzhen, and then Taiwan. The company is awaiting Beijing’s decision on whether it can sell its H200 AI chip to Chinese buyers, following U.S. approval. Reuters has reported that Chinese authorities told customs officials the chip was not allowed into China, though it’s unclear if this counts as an official ban. 3
Chip investors face a tricky mix. AI demand remains robust, yet bottlenecks persist — whether it’s Intel’s capacity and product mix challenges or regulatory hurdles affecting Nvidia’s sales in China.
Peers still play a role here. AMD has kept gaining ground in certain PC and server markets, while TSMC’s dominance is crucial since it produces cutting-edge chips for numerous U.S. designers, Nvidia among them.
The downside risk is clear. A firm “no” from Beijing on the H200 chip would cast doubt on Nvidia’s growth prospects in China this year. Add to that any hint of a slowdown in corporate AI spending or extended supply bottlenecks, and chip valuations, already high, could come under serious pressure.
Traders now turn to the calendar and politics. U.S. markets reopen Monday, Jan. 26, with the mood around Intel expected to set the early tone. Any fresh news from China on H200 imports could shake AI-related stocks. On Tuesday, Jan. 27, at 3:30 p.m. Central, Texas Instruments will webcast its quarterly earnings call, offering insight into industrial and embedded demand as the earnings season expands beyond just the AI winners. 4
