New York, January 25, 2026, 16:35 EST — Trading ended for the session.
- Intel shares plunged about 17% on Friday, ending the session at $45.07 after the company issued a weak first-quarter forecast.
- The company flagged supply constraints, even as demand for data-center processors remains strong.
- Traders kick off Monday watching to see if selling pressure holds and scanning for clues on when supply constraints could ease.
Intel’s shares closed Friday down 17.0% at $45.07 and slipped a further 1.8% after-hours, leaving the chipmaker under pressure as the new week kicks off. 1
This change matters because Intel’s rally through mid-January had turned the stock into a favored turnaround bet. Typically, when a chipmaker flags shipment delays, investors quickly cut near-term earnings forecasts — even if demand remains strong.
Intel reported its quarterly earnings on Thursday, forecasting first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion. The company expects non-GAAP earnings to remain flat at $0.00 per share. CEO Lip-Bu Tan emphasized ongoing efforts to increase supply, while CFO David Zinsner cautioned that supply will hit its lowest point in Q1, with improvements expected starting in Q2. 2
Executives conceded they misjudged how quickly demand would spike for server central processors used in AI data centers—chips that typically complement Nvidia’s graphics units. “In the short term, I’m disappointed that we are not able to fully meet the demand,” Tan told analysts. Zinsner said cloud customers “were all a little bit caught off guard” as factories ran at full capacity and production tweaks lagged. Tan also pointed out Intel’s 18A process yields—the share of usable chips per wafer—are “still below what I want them to be,” a constraint that could squeeze margins. 3
Several Wall Street desks flagged that the stock’s surge had outstripped near-term fundamentals. TD Cowen analysts said the rally was fueled more by “the dream” than the actual short-term outlook. Bernstein admitted the “server cycle seems real” but criticized Intel for “misjudging it” in terms of its capacity footprint. Jefferies saw supply tightness leveling off by March, while Oppenheimer predicted easing constraints by Q2. 4
The selloff has shifted focus sharply toward tangible results over future promises in AI. “It’s going to be a period of the haves versus the have-nots, and I personally don’t see Intel being in the haves,” said Julian McManus, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson. Next week, several megacap tech giants, including Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft, are scheduled to report earnings. 5
Intel disclosed it filed a resale prospectus supplement tied to a warrant and common stock arrangement with the U.S. Department of Commerce. The company stressed that no new securities were issued, and the filing doesn’t ensure the selling securityholder will sell shares; Intel wouldn’t receive any proceeds if sales occur. 6
Investors aren’t so much worried about Intel’s customer base these days as they are about the company’s capacity to churn out enough chips while maintaining healthy margins. The challenge? Small tweaks to supply forecasts can quickly shift the outlook, making it a tough call to trade.
The risk is that “improving in Q2” slides to “later this year,” or that weak manufacturing yields curb profits even as shipments rise. If that happens, the stock will probably stay volatile, with rallies getting sold off.
U.S. markets reopen Monday, January 26, with a focus on Intel following Friday’s sharp sell-off. Traders will watch closely for stabilization signals and any new analyst notes or supply-chain developments that could sway sentiment.
