LONDON, Jan 26, 2026, 07:57 (GMT) — Premarket.
HSBC Holdings’ shares are likely to grab early attention in London Monday after insiders indicated the bank plans to boost its key profitability target in next month’s annual results. The bank is tipped to raise its return-on-tangible-equity forecast beyond the current “mid teens or better” range. Some analysts suggest the upgrade could be around two percentage points. HSBC declined to comment. Peter Rothwell, KPMG UK’s head of banking, noted lenders are seeing “earnings resilience lasting longer than initially expected,” supported by higher rates, credit quality, and cost control. 1
This matters now because in a bank rally, targets and guidance often carry more weight than the headline profit itself. A raised return forecast directly drives expectations for dividends and buybacks, shaping the sector’s mood as earnings reports roll in over the coming weeks.
The key figure here is HSBC’s return on tangible equity, or RoTE. This profitability measure looks at earnings relative to shareholders’ tangible capital, excluding elements such as goodwill.
HSBC shares slipped 1.1% to 1,231 pence on Friday, holding close to recent peaks following a solid rally in UK banking stocks. 2
HSBC ranks among the globe’s largest banks, boasting significant operations in Hong Kong and the UK, as well as corporate, investment banking, and wealth management arms. This diverse footprint means its outlook is particularly vulnerable to interest rate changes across different regions. 3
In Hong Kong, HSBC is wrapping up a key deal that’s been under close watch: the planned privatisation of Hang Seng Bank. The bank said the scheme should take effect on Jan. 26, with Hang Seng shares set to be delisted from the Hong Kong exchange on Jan. 27. Payment for the scheme consideration is scheduled by Feb. 4. 4
On Monday, traders will zero in on initial moves in UK bank stocks and gauge if the “higher for longer” rates narrative is still driving momentum. They’ll also be tuned in for signs that higher return targets might be tied to stricter cost controls.
Rates continue to outweigh the impact of headlines. Banks’ net interest income — the gap between loan earnings and depositor costs — usually remains steadier when yields hold steady and deposit competition remains limited.
But aiming higher can also misfire. If central banks cut rates quicker than investors anticipate, or if the economy weakens and credit losses mount, that added ambition shrinks the margin for error—and HSBC’s share price can slide fast.
Investors are eyeing HSBC’s annual results on Feb. 25 closely, hoping for new targets and a sharper outline on capital returns. 5
