Helsinki, Jan 26, 2026, 14:24 (EET) — Regular session
- Shares of Neste climbed roughly 6% in Helsinki following new broker upgrades.
- Analysts highlighted stronger renewable fuel prices alongside a rebound in margins.
- The next major test for investors comes with the company’s results on Feb. 5.
Neste Oyj shares climbed 5.9% to 21.95 euros by 1424 EET (1224 GMT), after hitting 22.03 earlier — marking a 52-week peak. 1
The timing is key, coming right before Neste’s annual results. Investors are weighing whether last year’s rally still has steam or if it’s already factored into the price. With the company staying quiet, broker notes are driving the narrative.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Neste to “overweight” from “equal-weight” on Monday, raising its price target to 25 euros from 18.80 euros. The firm said consensus forecasts for 2026 renewable product margins are trailing current spot levels. It now projects around $650 per tonne for most of fiscal 2026, highlighting policy-driven demand in Europe and a possible rebound in U.S. renewable diesel margins. Term contracts, which typically make up 60%-80% of volumes, are seen as a stabilizing factor. The bank also noted that Neste’s balance sheet appears more flexible following the Rotterdam expansion. 2
Goldman Sachs analyst Michelle Della Vigna raised Neste to Buy from Neutral, setting a 24-euro price target. She pointed to above-consensus estimates and a more favorable biofuels regulatory outlook in Europe, which might allow Neste to command higher premiums in 2026. 3
Goldman flagged a 11%-14% jump in European spot renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel prices quarter-on-quarter, driven by compliance demand and tight imports amid maintenance season. The bank projects fourth-quarter EBITDA at 642 million euros, ahead of the Bloomberg consensus of 530 million. BNP Paribas Exane, however, has downgraded the stock to Neutral following its recent rally. 4
Two upgrades in a row point to the same driver: renewable margins. This refers to the gap between Neste’s selling price for renewable diesel and SAF, and its costs for feedstocks like used cooking oil and tallow.
There’s a clear downside, though. When a stock hits a 52-week high, there’s little wiggle room for any setbacks. Plus, the oil-products segment still hinges on diesel crack spreads — that’s the gap between crude oil prices and refined diesel — which can shift abruptly.
Investors are currently working with little new information from the company. Neste entered its “silent period” on Jan. 6, so it won’t discuss business outlooks or hold investor meetings ahead of its results. 5
Feb. 5 is the next key date, as Neste will release its financial results for fiscal 2025. 6
Traders will be watching closely for clues on 2026 renewable product margins, the volume secured through term contracts, and whether the company expects demand driven by regulations to sustain into spring.
