New York, Jan 26, 2026, 11:44 EST — Regular session
- AppLovin shares climbed roughly 5% in late morning trading following Needham’s upgrade to “buy”
- Needham raised its 2026 e-commerce revenue forecast to $1.45 billion, pointing to improved performance in self-serve advertising
- Investors are now focused on Feb. 11 results to see if the e-commerce growth is holding steady
Shares of AppLovin Corp jumped 5.1% to $551.15 in late morning trading Monday following an upgrade from Needham. The firm raised its rating to buy and slapped on a $700 price target. Analyst Bernie McTernan cited increased confidence in the company’s 2026 growth, driven by expanded work on e-commerce ads. He also highlighted a bullish scenario where AppLovin could follow a “similar trajectory as TikTok.” 1
The call is crucial now as AppLovin’s stock essentially bets on one thing: whether its newer e-commerce ad push can ramp up quickly enough to back the sharp swings in its share price. Investors have doubled down on the e-commerce story, and they’re quick to punish any sign of faltering.
AppLovin is set to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Feb. 11, right after the U.S. market closes. The company also announced it will hold a webcast later that day. 2
McTernan raised his 2026 e-commerce forecast to $1.45 billion, up from $1.05 billion, saying growth in advertisers using the company’s self-service platform could counteract the usual post-holiday ad spend slowdown. This self-service option allows advertisers to buy and manage campaigns via software instead of dealing with sales reps.
Needham’s $700 target is about a third higher than Friday’s close, a significant jump for a stock known for volatile daily moves. That leaves scant margin for error if demand dips.
AppLovin offers software designed to help app publishers monetize their users while enabling advertisers to place and track ads more effectively. The company markets its ad model and tools as a solution to boost targeting accuracy and returns amid shifting marketing budgets across platforms.
The saga around the shares has been messy. Last week, CapitalWatch released a short-seller report accusing AppLovin of links to money laundering. The company pushed back, calling the report false and misleading in a statement emailed to Investing.com. 3
Several analysts have cautioned against an overreaction. Piper Sandler dismissed the short report as offering “little evidence” and forecast that investors would move on from it, according to TheFly/TipRanks. 4
The risks remain clear. A slowdown in e-commerce advertiser growth, weaker ad spending, or intensified scrutiny over short-seller claims could quickly erode the stock’s premium.
Traders have their sights set on Feb. 11, waiting for updates on e-commerce progress, advertiser growth, and whether AppLovin can maintain margins while ramping up efforts in new ad budgets.
