NEW YORK, Jan 26, 2026, 13:42 EST — Regular session.
- Gold surged past $5,000 an ounce, climbing to roughly $5,110 as investors sought refuge amid escalating global tensions. 1
- Gold-backed funds climbed alongside bullion. SPDR Gold Shares gained roughly 2%, while VanEck’s GDX and GDXJ each jumped over 3%. 2
- Attention shifts to the Federal Reserve’s January 27-28 meeting as traders await the next hint on interest rates. 3
Gold surged past $5,100 an ounce Monday, marking another record and climbing roughly 18% this year after a staggering 64% jump in 2025. Silver and platinum also reached new highs. Spot gold, which reflects immediate delivery prices, was up 1.9% at $5,076.43 by 11:37 a.m. ET, after hitting $5,110.50; U.S. February futures rose 1.9% to $5,074.10. Meanwhile, spot silver hit an all-time peak at $113.61. Ryan McIntyre, president of Sprott Inc, attributed the rally to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, along with steady central bank buying and renewed inflows into physically backed bullion ETFs. 4
The latest surge comes as markets wrestle with another round of tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump and fresh swings in foreign exchange. Trump warned he would slap a 100% tariff on Canada if it goes ahead with a trade deal involving China, stepping back from earlier threats aimed at European allies amid the Greenland dispute. Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, described it as “a crisis of confidence in the U.S. administration,” while traders also weighed talk of possible U.S.-Japan moves in currency markets. 5
Investors are bracing for a two-day Federal Reserve meeting clouded by political tension. The Fed is widely expected to maintain rates between 3.50% and 3.75%. However, concerns about the central bank’s independence have resurfaced after the Trump administration launched a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell, amid ongoing pressure from Trump for lower borrowing costs. 6
The U.S. dollar index dipped below 97, hovering near a four-year trough, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to around 4.22%. A softer dollar usually boosts gold by lowering prices overseas, and declining yields ease the cost of holding non-yielding bullion. 7
Gold miners surged alongside bullion, boosted by a rally that typically widens their margins. Newmont climbed 3%, Barrick Mining added 2.3%, Agnico Eagle Mines rose 2.6%, and Kinross Gold jumped nearly 4%. Societe Generale now forecasts gold hitting $6,000 an ounce by year-end. “As long as the dollar stays under pressure … it is difficult to see what forces this market to roll over,” said City Index analyst Fawad Razaqzada. 8
Goldman Sachs has lifted its December 2026 price target to $5,400 an ounce, pushing forecasts higher. Its analysts predict central banks will buy around 60 metric tons monthly and highlight record inflows into gold-backed ETFs as fresh momentum for the rally. “The only certainty seems to be uncertainty, and that’s playing into gold’s hands,” said independent analyst Ross Norman. 9
The London Bullion Market Association’s 2026 forecast survey sets the average gold price at $4,741.97, though estimates vary greatly—from $3,450 to $7,150. LBMA highlighted geopolitical tensions, central bank moves, and U.S. monetary policy as the main factors influencing these projections. 10
Still, the rapid pace of the move offers little breathing room. Any change in U.S. rate expectations, a steadier dollar, or a pause in political turmoil might spark profit-taking and sudden sell-offs.
The real focus shifts to Wednesday, when the Fed drops its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Powell’s press briefing half an hour later. Traders will be digging for clues on the timing of the next rate cut — and watching closely to see if political pressures creep into the tone. 11
