New York, January 26, 2026, 18:19 EST — After-hours
- AppLovin shares climb following Needham’s upgrade to buy, citing improved e-commerce ad trends
- Needham boosts its 2026 e-commerce revenue outlook, highlighting fresh advertiser gains
- Attention turns to the February 11 earnings, while the Fed’s midweek decision looms in the backdrop
AppLovin Corp (APP.O) shares climbed 2.2% to $535.44 in after-hours Monday, building on momentum from a broker upgrade linked to its e-commerce ad strategy. The stock fluctuated between $520 and $558 throughout the session.
The move comes as investors seek evidence that AppLovin’s Axon ad-targeting tools can grow past mobile gaming, the company’s original stronghold. E-commerce ads represent a larger market, but budgets shift fast when the figures falter.
Needham & Company bumped AppLovin to buy from hold on Monday, upping its price target to $700. The firm cited fresh analysis boosting confidence in 2026 e-commerce revenue growth. It raised the 2026 e-commerce revenue forecast to $1.45 billion from $1.05 billion and projects first-quarter e-commerce revenue to climb to $251 million from $191 million in Q4. “We upgrade APP to Buy… giving us more confidence in the trajectory of ecommerce revenue growth in ’26E,” the broker said. 1
Advertising firms usually experience a slower start to the year after the holiday spike — the so-called “seasonality” analysts mention — so any quarter-on-quarter rise stands out. Needham highlighted better ad formats too, like playable ads and rewarded video, where users earn in-app rewards for watching.
Needham has been digging for new evidence online. It spotted names like prediction-market platform Kalshi and online marketplace Etsy either using or testing AppLovin’s Axon technology, along with several other advertisers. The firm identified 435 brands employing its Axon Pixel plug-in as of Jan. 21, up from 431 in late December and 359 last March, after scanning over 2,200 websites. Analyst Bernie McTernan commented, “We think they are in the process of showing they can be successful outside of games too.” AppLovin shares more than doubled in 2025 but have dropped about 20% so far this year, the report noted. 2
A “pixel” is a tiny snippet of code that lets advertisers track if an ad resulted in a sale or another action. AppLovin’s plug-in, which can be added via platforms like Shopify or Alphabet’s Google tools, offers merchants a self-serve way to connect with its ad network.
Investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, wrapping up Wednesday, with expectations firmly set on rates holding steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This is crucial for growth stocks sensitive to interest rates, where valuations play a key role. 3
AppLovin still faces regulatory scrutiny. Reuters reported in October that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating its data-collection practices. Bloomberg News had earlier said the probe stemmed from a whistleblower complaint and short-seller reports. So far, the SEC hasn’t accused AppLovin or its executives of any wrongdoing, and the investigation’s current status remains unclear. 4
E-commerce advertising is a crowded space. Google, Meta, and Amazon dominate performance marketing, while smaller ad-tech firms scramble to secure budgets as brands pull back on spending.
AppLovin plans to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Feb. 11, after U.S. markets close. Management will follow up with a webinar the same day. Investors will be keen to hear updates on e-commerce revenue, advertiser uptake, and any comments on the regulatory environment. 5
