SYDNEY, Jan 27, 2026, 16:51 (AEDT) — The market has closed.
- CBA ended 0.5% higher at A$150.22, trailing behind the market’s strong rally in resources stocks.
- Traders are gearing up for Wednesday’s inflation figures and the RBA decision due next week.
- CBA is set to release its half-year results and announce an interim dividend on Feb. 11.
Shares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia rose 0.5% to close at A$150.22 on Tuesday, trading within a range of A$149.76 to A$151.20. However, the bank slipped behind BHP as the Australian market’s largest stock by value, following a strong rally in mining shares.
Investors face awkward timing, having leaned on big banks as a straightforward bet on rate movements. Now, with inflation and the Reserve Bank of Australia under the spotlight again, the sector’s lofty valuations seem less secure. Westpac, National Australia Bank, and ANZ typically track similar rate patterns.
The ASX 200 closed up 0.9%, hitting its highest point since late October, ABC reported. The outlet also noted markets now see about a 61% probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike by the RBA next week, according to interest-rate derivatives — instruments traders use to wager on policy moves.
The quarterly Consumer Price Index is set for release at 11:30 a.m. AEDT on Wednesday, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ schedule. Traders are focusing on the “trimmed mean” figure — a core measure that excludes the most extreme price changes — to gauge if inflation is slowing at the desired pace. Australian Bureau of Statistics
The RBA will release its rate decision statement on Feb. 3 at 2:30 p.m. AEDT, with a media conference set for an hour later, according to the central bank’s calendar. That same day, the bank will also publish its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
Tuesday’s rally was driven largely by resources. BHP and Rio Tinto powered the initial advances, while the Australian dollar climbed past 69 U.S. cents, according to a CBA Newsroom market wrap.
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Markets, noted that the shift away from banks has been underway for months, with investors moving into commodities and adjusting rate risk. “Valuations in the banking sector were stretched,” he said, pointing out that potential rate hikes could reduce credit demand. The Nightly
CBA is set to release its half-year results on Feb. 11, according to its financial calendar. The bank plans to announce an interim dividend on the same day. The ex-dividend date is marked for Feb. 18, with the dividend payment expected on March 30.
Valuation still looks like the weak link. Morningstar analyst Nathan Zaia pegs fair value at A$100 a share, warning the current premium tightens the margin for error. “The stock price has been detached from fundamentals,” he noted. Morningstar
That said, the near-term outlook could switch fast. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading might push rate-hike bets higher and weigh on bank multiples, hitting the priciest stocks hardest as investors rethink credit demand and arrears risks. A softer print would relieve some of that strain but would also raise fresh doubts about the remaining margin in an already crowded mortgage market.
Investors are now focused on Wednesday’s CPI release, followed by the Feb. 3 RBA decision and CBA’s results and dividend call on Feb. 11. These events will steer rate expectations and influence how much the market values the sector.
