DALLAS, Texas, Jan 27, 2026, 15:27 (CST)
- Texas Instruments’ revenue forecast for the March quarter topped Wall Street estimates, sending shares higher in after-hours trading
- Q4 revenue climbed compared to last year, yet profit dipped slightly, weighed down by an unexpected per-share charge
- Before the report, traders were largely betting on a beat, according to a prediction market
Texas Instruments projected first-quarter revenue between $4.32 billion and $4.68 billion on Tuesday, topping Wall Street’s average estimate of $4.42 billion and pushing TXN shares up almost 5% after hours. The analog-chip giant posted fourth-quarter revenue of $4.42 billion, just shy of forecasts. Its stock has gained over 13% this year, rebounding from a more than 7% drop in 2025 amid tariff-related concerns. 1
The outlook is crucial since Texas Instruments supplies the fundamental analog and embedded chips found in cars, factory machinery, and a wide range of consumer gadgets. Investors often view its guidance as a real-time indicator of everyday electronics demand, beyond just the components linked to data centers.
The analog market remains weighed down by an inventory hangover: buyers stocked up during the pandemic, then pulled back to clear their shelves. A forecast that beats estimates might suggest the cleanup is nearly finished, but it could also mislead if orders are just pushed into different quarters.
TI reported fourth-quarter revenue of $4.42 billion, up 10% from a year ago. Net income dipped to $1.16 billion, with earnings per share falling to $1.27, including a six-cent hit outside its original guidance. Analog sales jumped 14% to $3.62 billion, while embedded processing revenue climbed 8% to $662 million. For all of 2025, revenue hit $17.68 billion. CEO Haviv Ilan noted the company “returned $6.5 billion to owners” over the past year and added that “Revenue decreased 7% sequentially and increased 10% from the same quarter a year ago.” 2
After the regular session, TXN was trading near $207.48, according to Investors.com. The company’s guidance points to roughly $4.5 billion in sales for the March quarter and about $1.35 a share in earnings. 3
Expectations ran strong, even off the main track. On Polymarket, a site where users wager on real-world events, traders priced Texas Instruments at an 85% chance of topping the $1.31 per share estimate, according to TipRanks before the earnings drop. 4
The risk here is that the guidance signals timing quirks, not a solid rebound. Customers often “pull in” orders—buying earlier than expected—before tariff changes, which can inflate one quarter’s results and drain the next. KeyBanc analyst John Vinh noted, “China auto demand stays soft, and industrial weakness plus tariff-related pull-ins continue to cloud near-term visibility.” 5
Texas Instruments goes head-to-head with rivals like Analog Devices and Microchip Technology in analog and embedded chips. In this space, extensive product ranges and longevity often outweigh cutting-edge speed. Demand here tracks factory production and vehicle assembly more closely than the AI spending boom.
Ilan has ramped up spending on manufacturing, focusing on bigger 300-millimeter wafers — larger silicon slices that can cut per-chip costs when plants operate at full tilt. While this investment boosts capacity, it also puts cash flow under close watch from investors holding TXN for dividends.
At this stage, the results are mixed: Q4 profits took a hit, yet the outlook came in stronger than expected. Tariffs continue to cloud the demand picture. The real challenge will be if orders hold up once easy comparisons disappear and customers quit “buying ahead.”
