New York, Jan 28, 2026, 12:03 EST — Regular session underway
- Applied Materials shares climbed roughly 1% in midday trading following an analyst upgrade
- Mizuho raised its target to $370, pointing to a surge in chip-factory tool investments
- Attention turns to Feb. 12 earnings and forecasts, while China remains a key wildcard
Shares of Applied Materials (AMAT) climbed roughly 1.1% to $336.21 by midday Wednesday, having surged as high as $349.19 earlier in the session.
This shift is crucial as investors scramble to confirm if the long-anticipated rebound in chipmaking equipment demand is truly hitting 2026 orders, beyond just the forecasts. A new upgrade could reignite the discussion around pricing.
Applied stands as a key indicator for semiconductor tools — those expensive machines chipmakers snap up when ramping up factories or tackling more intricate designs. When spending shifts, stocks tend to react quickly.
Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh upgraded Applied Materials from Neutral to Outperform, bumping his price target to $370 from $275. He cited an expected “significant acceleration” in wafer fab equipment spending—WFE, the gear used to build chips. Mizuho forecasts WFE to grow 13% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, driven by increased capital expenditure from TSMC and Intel. That said, China remains a drag, with Applied’s China revenue predicted to drop about 4% in 2026. 1
Chip stocks mostly climbed. The iShares Semiconductor ETF gained roughly 2%. Intel surged around 11.6%, and Taiwan Semiconductor added about 0.9%. Within chip-equipment names, Lam Research held steady, KLA edged up a bit, and ASML slipped.
Traders are focusing on one key issue: will foundry and memory spending translate into actual booked tool orders, or just linger as “next quarter” speculation? For Applied, the answer lies in the shipment pace to advanced logic and memory fabs, where customers are investing in AI workload support.
China remains the toughest challenge. Applied has warned that broader U.S. export controls could cut fiscal 2026 revenue, and if restrictions tighten or licensing drags, it could shift what the company ships and the timing. 2
Timing is another risk. If chipmakers feel their capacity is sufficient, equipment spending could be delayed by a quarter or two, particularly with weak demand for mature chips. This often leads to order delays and more volatile quarterly guidance.
Applied’s fiscal first-quarter results are due Feb. 12. Investors will be watching closely for management’s outlook on 2026 tool spending, demand from China, and if the upbeat tone in customer capex plans is actually showing up in bookings. 3
