New York, January 28, 2026, 12:24 EST — Regular session
- AppLovin shares ticked up roughly 1.2% in midday trading
- Needham’s upgrade spotlighted Axon and the surge in e-commerce ad growth
- Investors are eyeing the Feb. 11 results for a sharper picture of 2026
AppLovin shares climbed roughly 1.2% Wednesday, settling around $550.25 after hitting an intraday peak of $557.64.
This shift is significant as the ad-tech company’s shares have been volatile throughout the month, with investors still weighing the sustainability of its growth now that it’s expanding beyond mobile gaming ads.
New bullish research has added fuel to the debate. Traders are zeroing in on every datapoint that might reveal if AppLovin’s Axon advertising system is actually capturing more retail and direct-to-consumer budgets — or merely toying with them.
Needham & Company bumped the stock up to “buy” from “hold” and put a $700 price target on it, Barron’s reported. The upgrade comes as the firm noted progress in the company’s newer e-commerce advertising segment. Needham also raised its 2026 e-commerce revenue forecast to $1.45 billion and highlighted a growing roster of retail advertisers using Axon tools, naming Etsy and prediction-market platform Kalshi among them. 1
In a separate note, Needham raised its expectations for advertiser growth, citing the self-service launch and increased spending as factors likely to “more than offset typical 1Q seasonality.” The firm also sees upside if the e-commerce expansion mirrors “a similar trajectory as TikTok.” 2
Axon’s pitch is simple: leverage ad tools and measurement to pinpoint which campaigns actually boost sales, then ramp up spending. For investors, that’s the key variable — expanding the advertiser base could rapidly alter growth prospects, but it risks drying up if results falter.
The competitive bar is set high. E-commerce advertising budgets are largely dominated by established players like Alphabet’s Google, Meta, and Amazon, offering marketers numerous options if returns start to dip.
Still, risks linger. AppLovin remains under the microscope for its data practices. Reuters reported in October that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating its data-collection methods. At that time, a company spokesperson declined to comment on “any potential regulatory matters.” 3
Valuation remains a key pressure point. The stock’s volatility means even a slight slowdown in advertiser additions—or a tougher-than-expected first-quarter seasonal dip—can quickly weigh on the shares.
AppLovin will report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings after the U.S. market closes on Feb. 11. CEO Adam Foroughi and CFO Matthew Stumpf will host a webcast at 5 p.m. ET to discuss the results. 4
Until then, investors are keeping an eye out for clear signs that Axon’s e-commerce efforts are driving steady spending, not just one-off trials — and any regulatory news that might shake up the trading range once more.
