New York, January 28, 2026, 18:19 (EST) — After-hours
- Shares of UnitedHealth rebounded roughly 4% Wednesday, following a steep drop the previous day
- The insurer’s 2026 outlook and its Medicare Advantage payment proposal have shifted sector expectations.
- Investors are zeroing in on Washington’s final rate decision for 2027 and watching closely how insurers shift benefits and pricing
Shares of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated bounced back on Wednesday, ending roughly 4% higher at $294.02. The rebound followed a sharp sell-off the previous day, triggered by concerns over its 2026 outlook and a Medicare Advantage payment proposal that shook the managed-care giant.
The rebound is significant since UnitedHealth sets the tone for U.S. health insurers, with both catalysts targeting the same pressure point: government payments and the pace of medical cost increases.
With the cash market closed today, focus now turns to Thursday’s session and the days ahead — will the recent bounce stick, or will new analyst reports drive estimates down further or finally steady them?
The stock closed the regular session at $294.02, rising $11.32 from the previous close. During the day, it hit a low of $282.25 and climbed as high as $294.91.
Tuesday delivered a jolt. UnitedHealth shares plunged 19%, hitting $282.45—their steepest single-day loss since April—after the company flagged a revenue decline for 2026, the first drop since 1989. Morningstar’s Julie Utterback warned investors might face a longer wait for a rebound than expected. Novare Capital’s James Harlow pointed to the Medicare proposal as a new concern, suggesting it casts doubt on earnings growth in 2027. 1
UnitedHealth projects 2026 revenue topping $439.0 billion, with earnings exceeding $17.10 per share and adjusted earnings above $17.75 per share. CEO Stephen Hemsley remarked, “We confronted challenges directly and finished 2025 as a much stronger company.” 2
UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter net earnings of $0.01 per share, with adjusted net earnings coming in at $2.11 per share. The quarter included a $1.6 billion charge after taxes, or $1.78 per share, which covered “final cyberattack costs” of $799 million. The company set its 2026 consolidated medical care ratio at 88.8%, plus or minus 50 basis points. This ratio, representing the portion of premium dollars spent on medical claims, factors in ongoing repricing efforts. 3
The policy landscape is causing some disruption. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services revealed its preliminary 2027 update projects a net average annual payment increase of just 0.09% — roughly $700 million. It also highlighted adjustments to risk scoring, specifically removing diagnoses from “unlinked” chart review records, meaning those not connected to a particular patient encounter. CMS plans to release the final 2027 rate notice by April 6, 2026, with public comments due by Feb. 25. 4
On Wednesday, peers showed mixed moves. Humana dropped 6.7% to $194.01. CVS Health gained 2.8%, closing at $74.03, and Cigna edged up 0.9% to $272.38.
The road ahead isn’t straightforward. Should the Medicare Advantage plan stick and risk-score adjustments hit harder than anticipated, insurers might be forced to cut back on extra benefits or abandon less profitable counties—even with medical usage remaining high. A bounce back would probably require either more favorable final rates, easing cost pressures, or a mix of the two.
UnitedHealth submitted an 8-K on Jan. 27, attaching its earnings release and accompanying exhibits. This officially puts the guidance reset on the record. 5
The key question now: will buyers return on Thursday? Also, will Washington’s April 6 deadline for final 2027 rates deliver any real gains over the preliminary figures?
