Sydney, Jan 29, 2026, 16:53 AEDT — Market closed
Shares of Mineral Resources Limited fell 4.5%, ending at A$60.56 on Thursday. This came after the miner raised its FY26 lithium output forecast in its December-quarter update. (Mineral Resources)
The drop is significant since MinRes remains in the “prove it” stage of transitioning from heavy capital spending to generating cash. Investors are closely monitoring if its newer iron ore projects can produce enough cash flow to reduce debt, while lithium price swings remain manageable.
MinRes reported that Onslow Iron shipped 8.7 million wet metric tonnes of iron ore in the quarter, with free-on-board costs at A$50 a tonne. Net debt dropped to roughly A$4.9 billion. The company raised its FY26 guidance for SC6 spodumene concentrate (around 6% lithium oxide) after the average achieved price jumped 29% to US$1,094 per dry metric tonne on a CIF basis. It also warned of a possible non-cash impairment in the half-year accounts as it reviews assets previously owned by Resource Development Group.
Market Index reported MinRes’ attributable iron ore shipments reached 7.2 million tonnes, just above market forecasts, though realised iron ore prices fell slightly short of expectations. Total spodumene shipments hit 166,000 tonnes, surpassing the 123,000 tonnes anticipated. Additionally, realised SC6 prices at Mt Marion and Wodgina outperformed estimates. (Market Index)
The wider lithium sector edged down. Market Index reported Chinese lithium carbonate futures kicked off trading 2% weaker. It also flagged drops in Pilbara Minerals, IGO, and Liontown Resources throughout the session. (Market Index)
MinRes’ balance sheet story hinges largely on a move outside this quarter’s figures. Back in November, it struck a deal to offload a 30% stake in its lithium operations to POSCO Holdings for US$765 million. That agreement still awaits detailed contracts and regulatory green lights, including approval from Australia’s foreign investment watchdog. MinRes chair Malcolm Bundey described the deal as “a milestone for our industry.” Managing director Chris Ellison added it would “materially strengthen” the company’s balance sheet. Meanwhile, POSCO CEO In Hwa Chang emphasized the group’s focus on “securing a stable, cost-competitive supply” of raw materials. (ASX Announcements)
In the next session, traders will watch closely to see if the late fade continues and whether lithium prices can withstand the earlier drop in futures.
The downside is clear: if lithium prices drop again or operations falter, cash flow would take a hit. That would come at a tough time, with MinRes front-loading its spending and facing a hefty interest burden.
Mineral Resources is set to release its FY2026 half-year results on Feb. 20, the next major event on its investor calendar. The following quarterly report comes April 30, per Mineral Resources.
