New York, Jan 29, 2026, 14:54 EST — Regular session
- BKD shares have jumped roughly 11% following preliminary 2025 results and updated guidance for 2026
- Brookdale projects adjusted EBITDA between $502 million and $516 million for 2026, alongside RevPAR growth of 8% to 9%
- Rising price targets on Wall Street are shining a brighter spotlight on management’s Investor Day set for Jan. 30
Shares of Brookdale Senior Living Inc climbed almost 11% Thursday, building on earlier gains following the release of preliminary 2025 results and the company’s inaugural full-year forecast for 2026. The stock hit $14.55, up 10.9%, reaching an intraday peak of $14.62.
This matters because Brookdale is rolling out 2026 figures just a day ahead of its Investor Day, giving a fast snapshot of whether gains in senior-housing prices are feeding through to operating profit and cash flow. Investors have been eager for a sharper link between portfolio moves and management’s forward targets.
It’s entering a market that swiftly penalizes weak cash flow. Non-GAAP profit numbers might look better, but working capital shifts and transaction timing can drag cash the opposite way. Brookdale, meanwhile, has been relying on steadily reducing its leverage.
Late Wednesday, Brookdale projected 2025 revenue around $3.2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA hitting about $458 million—up roughly 19% from 2024 and above the midpoint of its earlier forecast. The company also anticipates a 2025 net loss near $263 million, which includes roughly $71 million in non-cash impairment charges mainly linked to planned asset sales. Adjusted free cash flow will fall short of the previous $30 million to $50 million range due to working-capital shifts. Looking ahead to 2026, Brookdale expects RevPAR growth between 8% and 9%, with adjusted EBITDA between $502 million and $516 million. CEO Nick Stengle commented, “We are pleased with the progress we made in 2025,” and repeated the target to bring leverage below 6.0x by the end of 2028. 1
Analysts wasted no time. BofA Securities lifted its price target to $15.50 from $13 and maintained a Buy rating, noting Brookdale’s 2026 guidance midpoint sits about 4% above consensus estimates. 2
RBC Capital raised its price target to $17 from $13, keeping an Outperform rating, according to a GuruFocus report citing analyst Ben Hendrix. 3
RevPAR — revenue per available unit — measures pricing and occupancy in senior housing. Adjusted EBITDA serves as a stand-in for operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, with adjustments for specific items. Traders will watch Brookdale’s 2026 guidance closely, gauging if the company can keep raising rates without those gains being eroded by rising costs.
There’s potential for disappointment. These numbers are preliminary and unaudited. Brookdale warned results might shift as the year-end process wraps up. The gap in adjusted free cash flow compared to earlier guidance also shows how fast working capital can fluctuate, even with EBITDA on the rise.
Brookdale’s Investor Day webcast is set for Friday, Jan. 30, at 9:00 a.m. CT (10:00 a.m. ET). Investors will be focused on updates around transaction activity, the 2026 bridge, and if management’s leverage strategy remains viable given actual cash flow. 4
