New York, January 30, 2026, 14:56 EST — Regular session
Altria Group’s shares climbed $1.85, roughly 3.1%, hitting $61.61 in afternoon trading Friday. This rebound came a day after the Marlboro maker’s earnings report pushed the stock down to close at $59.76.
The bounce matters as investors wrestle with what will actually drive earnings from here. Cigarette volumes continue to drop, while the battle over nicotine pouches and vapes has devolved into a mix of pricing pressure and regulatory hurdles.
Altria is tapping into a fresh profit source linked to exports and imports, an area where it has lagged behind global competitors. This strategy is now intertwined with a management transition scheduled for May.
Altria reported Thursday that its fourth-quarter net revenues slipped 2.1% to $5.846 billion. Adjusted diluted earnings per share, which exclude certain special items, came out at $1.30. The company projects adjusted diluted EPS for 2026 between $5.56 and $5.72. In 2025, Altria returned $8 billion to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. 1
A filing revealed the board has grown, adding finance chief Salvatore Mancuso as a director, effective Jan. 29. The company confirmed he will take over as chief executive on May 14, following the annual meeting. 2
Mancuso has pushed for a U.S. excise-tax rebate called the “double duty drawback,” which lets tobacco firms recover federal excise taxes paid on domestic cigarette sales once they export similar products abroad. Altria, traditionally focused on the U.S. market, is expanding exports through partnerships like Korea’s KT&G and contract manufacturing. Mancuso told Reuters it would be “foolish not to take advantage” of this provision. Bernstein analysts acknowledge the tax break could provide some relief but still see a “challenging picture” as Altria grapples with volume drops and nicotine competition. 3
Competitive pressure is most evident in the smokeless nicotine sector. Altria executives singled out unauthorized flavored disposable e-cigarettes as a rising threat to their cigarette sales. CEO Billy Gifford emphasized the company’s ongoing push for tougher crackdowns on illicit products. Altria’s on! pouch market share has dropped to around 13%, while Philip Morris International’s Zyn controls over two-thirds of the U.S. pouch market, Nielsen data cited by AP shows. Additionally, Altria faces a block on NJOY Ace devices following a patent dispute with Juul. 4
The export tax break won’t solve everything, and the company has already warned that earnings growth in 2026 will mainly come in the latter half. A misstep in execution or a harsher price war in pouches and vapes could push the stock back to relying on its dividend appeal.
Investors are gearing up for new insights at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York conference on Feb. 18, followed by Altria’s Q1 earnings call scheduled for April 30. 5
