New York, Jan 30, 2026, 15:33 EST — Regular session
- Lumentum shares climbed roughly 2.5% despite volatile trading, with the stock swinging widely throughout the session
- Morgan Stanley raised its price target but maintained an “equal weight” rating
- Attention turns to the Feb. 3 earnings and the insights they offer on margins and supply constraints
Lumentum Holdings shares climbed roughly 2.5% Friday, closing at $390.96 following a choppy session that saw prices dip to $389.18 before spiking to $448.00.
This shift is significant since investors view optical and connectivity suppliers as a gauge of Big Tech’s appetite for data center spending on AI workloads. That’s happening while the market wrestles with whether those investments will yield quick returns. 1
Lumentum’s next data point is just around the corner. Positioned amid upgrades to faster data center links, the company has seen sharp price swings fueled by expectations around “AI plumbing” ahead of earnings.
Morgan Stanley bumped up its price target on Lumentum to $350 from $304 on Friday, maintaining an Equal Weight rating. Analyst Meta Marshall noted in a preview that “the biggest unknowns are largely on margins,” pointing out that demand stays robust even as the company faces tight capacity constraints. 2
That target remains under the stock’s Friday close, underscoring how quickly the rally has outpaced most forecasts.
Lumentum will release its fiscal second-quarter results on Feb. 3, right after the market closes, followed by a conference call later that day. 3
Previously, the company projected revenue between $630 million and $670 million for the quarter, with non-GAAP earnings expected in the range of $1.30 to $1.50 per share. Non-GAAP figures usually strip out one-time or non-cash items that firms argue can mask underlying trends. 4
Traders are focusing on whether strong demand translates into better margins, not just higher sales, and if supply constraints will restrict near-term shipments. Comments on lead times and capacity expansions often sway these stocks.
Lumentum’s focus on data centers puts it alongside fiber and optical players like Coherent, Ciena, and Corning—sectors where investors quickly react to any sign of spending slowdowns.
The downside is straightforward: if margins fall short of expectations or management appears more constrained by capacity than investors prefer, the recent rally could reverse fast — particularly since price targets haven’t caught up with the stock’s moves.
Looking past Feb. 3, investors have another date to note: Lumentum’s management plans to hold an investor briefing at OFC in Los Angeles on March 17. 5
