Sydney, January 31, 2026, 16:49 AEDT — Market closed
CBA shares ended Friday up 0.47% at A$149.36, bouncing back after a dip the day before. The big lender held steady heading into the weekend, with investors eyeing rates and the reporting season. Trading ranged from A$148.33 to A$150.10, with around 2.3 million shares changing hands, according to MarketIndex data. (Market Index)
The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.65% to 8,869.1 on a volatile day for local shares. An early rally faded as materials stocks tumbled over 3%, with miners and gold names seeing profit-taking after a strong January, according to a Commonwealth Bank of Australia newsroom report via AAP. (CommBank)
Why it matters now: CBA slid 7.2% through January, dragging the bank sub-index down 1.3% for the month, Reuters reported. That dip allowed BHP to briefly retake the top spot by market value earlier this week. All eyes now turn to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision on Feb. 3, where the big four lenders are bracing for a quarter-point hike. (Business Recorder)
Midweek, the rate outlook shifted after Australia’s core inflation came in hotter than expected, boosting market odds of a rate hike to 73%, Reuters reported. RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser emphasized that policy decisions would lean on “broader economic trends rather than a single report.” Treasurer Jim Chalmers also noted that inflation pressures remain stubborn. Economists at ANZ Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank, and CBA have all flagged the possibility of a 25-basis-point hike — with a basis point equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point. (Reuters)
The cash rate—set by the RBA—directly influences banks’ funding costs and, down the line, the rates charged to households and businesses. While higher rates can boost interest income, they also squeeze borrowers and may curb new lending activity.
A filing revealed that on Jan. 28, CBA and its related entities dropped below the 5% threshold, no longer qualifying as a “substantial holder” in Karoon Energy Ltd. The notice, signed by company secretary Vicki Clarkson, detailed several shifts, including a minor sale by Colonial First State Investments Limited and the return of borrowed shares to Merrill Lynch International under a securities lending deal involving UBS AG. (Company Announcements)
Investors should mark their calendars for CBA’s upcoming financial events. The bank is set to release its half-year results and announce its interim dividend on Feb. 11. The interim dividend will then go ex-dividend on Feb. 18. (CommBank)
Traders will be eyeing bank shares in the next session to see if they continue to serve as a defensive hold when resources falter, or if concerns over rates trigger a pullback from the sector. Given CBA’s heavy index weighting, even a modest shift can make a noticeable mark on the day’s tape.
The risk here is complicated: if the RBA stays put or hints at keeping policy tighter for longer than expected, bank shares might reprice sharply. An unexpected rate hike would push up funding costs and hit loan demand. On the other hand, a dovish shift down the line would spark new doubts about how much lenders can still profit from the gap between lending and deposit rates.
The next key dates come thick and fast: the RBA decision lands on Feb. 3, followed by CBA’s half-year results on Feb. 11. The interim dividend schedule is set for the week after that.
