Sydney, Jan 31, 2026, 16:52 (AEDT) — Market closed
- NAB shares climbed Friday, bucking the downward trend in the wider market.
- Traders are gearing up for Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision, which could shake up bank valuations.
- Upcoming triggers to watch are the RBA meeting and NAB’s February trading update.
Shares of National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) closed up on Friday as investors shifted back toward major banks amid rising rate expectations ahead of next week.
This matters because Australian banks often react as much to interest-rate moves as to their own earnings. A single policy meeting can quickly change market expectations for profits and dividends.
Tuesday brings the first real test. Should the central bank act, traders will rush to determine if it’s a one-time adjustment or the beginning of a longer campaign.
Australia’s benchmark index fell 0.7% to 8,869.10 on Friday, weighed down by miners and gold stocks. Financials bounced back, rising 0.5%. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac Banking Corporation, and ANZ Group Holdings all gained, with the “big four” banks climbing between 0.5% and 0.8%, according to a Reuters market report. Marc Jocum of Global X ETFs noted, “The earnings season will be central in determining whether recent gains are justified at the stock level.” Indo Premier
The rate call is tightening, and opinion is dividing. Reuters reports that all four major banks now expect a quarter-point hike on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank remain in the minority, sticking with a hold. Andrew Boak said, “We do not view +0.9% qoq increase in trimmed mean inflation as a large enough upside surprise.” Reuters
NAB ended Friday at A$43.37, rising 31 cents or 0.72%, after swinging between A$43.00 and A$43.55. Roughly 5.17 million shares were traded, per Stock Analysis data.
A quarter-point equals 25 basis points, or one-quarter of a percentage point. Higher rates can raise banks’ loan returns, though that gain usually hinges on how fast deposit and funding expenses catch up.
Here’s the snag. If deposit competition remains fierce or funding costs climb quicker than loan yields, net interest margin—the gap between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits—could shrink instead of expand. Even a slight uptick in bad debts would rattle the trade.
NAB’s next update is set for Feb. 18, according to its shareholder calendar. The bank will release its first-quarter trading results then.
Through Tuesday, the stock is set to track rate pricing and the central bank’s statement tone closely — then all eyes shift to NAB’s update on margins and credit in mid-February.
