Sydney, Feb 20, 2026, 17:08 (AEDT) — Trading wrapped up for the day.
National Australia Bank Limited (NAB.AX) finished Friday’s session 0.1% higher at A$48.32, sticking close to its latest peak after a surge earlier in the week. The shares have climbed roughly 5% in the last five trading days.
Session’s over. Now, the question is if the rally in Australian bank stocks sticks around into next week, as focus shifts away from earnings and circles back to rates, funding costs, and credit quality.
Net interest margin, or NIM, measures the gap between income from loans and what banks shell out to fund those loans; one basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. Investors are watching the CET1 ratio too—a key capital buffer, influencing everything from dividends to future growth plans.
ASX 200 slipped around 0.1% toward the close, leaving most of the action to individual names.
NAB posted a 15% jump in first-quarter cash earnings from the prior half’s quarterly average, up 16% year-over-year for the three months ending Dec. 31. Revenue climbed 6%, expenses stayed mostly flat. Net interest margin edged up 2 basis points to 1.80%. Australian business lending ticked 2% higher, while deposit balances in Business & Private Banking and Personal Banking units rose 3%. “We have started FY26 strongly,” CEO Andrew Irvine said. The bank reported a A$170 million credit impairment charge. Non-performing exposures dropped to 1.47%. NAB’s Level 2 CET1 ratio landed at 11.48% at Dec. 31. NAB
Brokers kept their positive stance as valuations edged higher. UBS maintained its Buy call, bumping the target up to A$50.50. JPMorgan moved its target to A$47.80, and Morgan Stanley set theirs at A$43.50, per MarketIndex’s live broker updates.
Not everyone’s buying in. Nathan Zaia at Morningstar bumped his fair value estimate to A$34, though he still described NAB shares as “materially overvalued” at these levels. Morningstar
Rate bets are still driving the macro picture. On Thursday, NAB’s economics team projected underlying inflation sticking above 3% through much of 2026, and they’re tipping the RBA to push the cash rate up to 4.1% in May.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board will meet next on March 16–17, according to the RBA calendar. The following meeting is set for May 4–5.
But things can unravel fast. Intense deposit competition eats into margins, while a “higher for longer” rate path could quickly flip low arrears now into a surge in bad debts down the line.
NAB’s next big event lands with its half-year results on May 4, with the interim dividend ex-date coming up just three days later, on May 7. Eyes will be on whether buyers hold their positions through the quiet stretch ahead of those updates.
