London, Feb 20, 2026, 09:16 GMT — Regular session
- Glencore shares were little changed early on Friday after the miner’s 2025 results and a $2 billion shareholder return plan
- Investors are weighing a copper-led growth pitch against weaker coal pricing and softer energy-trading profits
- Next focus is progress on planned disposals and timing of June/September cash distributions
Glencore shares in London were up 0.04% at 505.2 pence on Friday, with prices delayed by 10 minutes, after the miner and commodities trader laid out a $2 billion shareholder return and pointed to a stronger second half in its industrial business.
The stock is trying to find a level after a busy midweek stretch: results, dividend math and fresh detail on Glencore’s trading arm all landed as investors reassess what comes next after merger talks with Rio Tinto broke down earlier this month.
Glencore said on Wednesday adjusted EBITDA — a profit measure before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation — fell 6% in 2025 to $13.51 billion, but beat analysts’ $13.3 billion consensus. It also said net debt was unchanged at $11.2 billion and outlined a 17-cent-a-share cash return for shareholders.
Chief executive Gary Nagle told reporters the “underlying momentum in H2 was clear”, pointing to higher metals prices and improved production volumes, especially copper. Nagle also said he still backed industry consolidation, even after the Rio approach failed. Reuters
Glencore’s own results release leaned hard on copper. It reiterated targets of more than 1 million tonnes of annualised copper production by end-2028 and about 1.6 million tonnes by 2035, and said it had finalised a land access package with Congo’s state miner Gécamines at its Kamoto Copper Company operation to support a life-of-mine extension and productivity improvements.
The cash return is split between a 10-cent “base” distribution and a 7-cent top-up tied to the value of Glencore’s stake in U.S. grains trader Bunge, which it described as surplus capital. Glencore said the combined 17 cents per share is intended to be paid in two equal instalments in June and September. Glencore
Still, the trading business is not giving investors an easy ride. Reuters calculations based on the company’s report showed Glencore traded 4.2 million barrels per day of oil and oil products and gas products in 2025, up 11% from a year earlier, but earnings from energy and steelmaking coal trading fell 32% to $614 million in 2025 as well-supplied markets and weaker sentiment hit performance.
Maurizio Carulli, an energy and materials analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said the “elephant in the room” remained the failed Rio talks and argued the market may now focus on portfolio moves — including potential partnership or divestment structures around Glencore’s copper pipeline and coal assets. media.quilter.com
The “but” is straightforward: if coal prices stay weak or trading margins remain thin, the cash-return story can lose punch fast. Glencore also has a cost-cut drive running — it has said it aims to save $1 billion by end-2026 — and that plan is sensitive to volumes, labour and execution. Reuters
For now, traders are watching for any concrete next step on Glencore’s plan to sell 40% of its Congo copper and cobalt business to a U.S.-backed consortium, and for detail on how it will take part in Washington’s “Project Vault” stockpiling initiative. Reuters
The next hard catalysts are the timing of the June and September cash instalments, and whether Glencore can turn its copper growth pitch into visible production and cost gains while its marketing business navigates another choppy year.
