HELSINKI, August 9, 2026, 22:01 EEST
- The Nasdaq Helsinki market is shut. Normal equity trading will reopen Monday at 10:00 EEST.
- Nokia closed at €8.156 on Friday, up 2.5% for the week. The OMX Helsinki 25 rose 0.3%.
- Early consensus estimates indicate fourth-quarter comparable operating profit at €1.221 billion with an operating margin around 19.1%.
Nokia Oyj HEL:NOKIA is set for a challenging fourth quarter as profit expectations rise. Analysts now forecast a comparable operating margin of 19.1% for the fourth quarter.
The primary indicator for investors after last week’s rally subsided is that obstacle. Nokia gave up nearly 89% of its close-to-close increase from Tuesday by the end of Friday’s session. Nevertheless, the stock posted stronger performance than Helsinki’s main index for the entire week.
The process begins with a first-half comparable operating profit of €735 million. Infront’s preliminary consensus estimates €444 million for Q3 and €2.4 billion for 2026. This means €1.221 billion must be generated in Q4.
Initial 2026 profit reconciliation
| Period | Net sales, €m | Comparable operating profit, €m | Comparable margin | Share of FY profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 actual | 9,248 | 735 | 7.9% | 30.6% |
| Q3 2026 consensus | 5,051 | 444 | 8.8% | 18.5% |
| Q4 2026 implied | 6,396 | 1,221 | 19.1% | 50.9% |
| FY 2026 consensus | 20,695 | 2,400 | 11.6% | 100.0% |
Fourth-quarter figures are calculated by removing H1 actual data and Q3 consensus from the entire year’s consensus. These estimates are initial and could vary from the actual results reported.
The suggested fourth-quarter profit is 2.75 times higher than the projection for the third quarter. This figure stands 16% higher than Nokia’s Q4 2025 profit of €1.05 billion. The calculated margin increases from about 17.2% a year ago to 19.1%.
Management has indicated a significant emphasis on the second half. Nokia anticipates Q3 sales will rise by 3% to 7% on a sequential basis. The company expects operating profit to remain roughly unchanged before a “meaningful” improvement in Q4. The Q3 sales consensus is €5.051 billion, representing a 4.9% increase over Q2. Nokia Corporation | Nokia
AI orders offer transparency rather than instant revenue. In the second quarter, orders related to AI and cloud totaled €2.8 billion, which is 6.3 times the quarterly sales of €446 million. Nokia anticipates roughly half of these orders will convert in the next 12 months. “Demand remains strong, while supply continues to be the main industry constraint,” CEO Justin Hotard said. Nokia Corporation | Nokia
The base quarter showed solid performance. Network Infrastructure posted the most notable gains.
| Q2 metric | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | €4.815bn | €4.443bn | +8% |
| Comparable gross margin | 46.0% | 45.3% | +70 bps |
| Comparable operating profit | €434m | €367m | +18% |
| Comparable operating margin | 9.0% | 8.3% | +70 bps |
| Network Infrastructure sales | €2.037bn | €1.825bn | +12% |
The direct-peer benchmark appears less favorable. Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson STO:ERIC-B posted a 6% drop in group sales during the second quarter. The company cautioned that increasing memory-chip expenses may pressure margins. Shares in Ericsson slid almost 12% after the announcement.
Nokia shares surged 6.49% on Tuesday, initially reflecting investor optimism, but then fell in each of the following three sessions. Despite the declines, the stock ended the week with a 2.2 percentage point gain compared with the OMXH25.
| Instrument | July 31 close | August 7 close | Weekly change | Friday change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nokia | €7.958 | €8.156 | up 2.5% | down 2.04% |
| OMX Helsinki 25 | 6,220.08 | 6,238.74 | up 0.3% | down 0.01% |
| Nokia relative performance | — | — | 2.2 pts higher | 2.0 pts lower |
Nokia announced an administrative update on Friday, distributing 957,142 treasury shares to equity-plan participants. Following this move, the company holds 87,626,482 treasury shares.
Sell-side sentiment is still positive but has eased modestly. There are 19 positive FactSet ratings, compared with 20 a month ago. The consensus recommendation is still Overweight.
| Analyst recommendation | Three months ago | One month ago | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | 15 | 16 | 15 |
| Overweight | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Hold | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Underweight | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Sell | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Consensus | Overweight | Overweight | Overweight |
Nokia’s New York ADR NYSE:NOK has an average price target of $12.83, representing a 37% increase over the $9.36 closing value on Friday. Analysts’ targets span from $6.30 to $20.47, highlighting significant divergence in views on the AI premium and execution risk.
The Nasdaq Helsinki will resume trading at 10:00 EEST on Monday. Nokia’s official calendar does not show any investor events scheduled between August 10 and August 14. The company’s next investor meeting is planned for September 2, with third-quarter results announcement set for October 22.
Risks: Nokia faces challenges including supply constraints, rising component costs, and an ambitious profit goal typically subject to seasonality. The outlook is based on an assumed EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.14. Free cash flow can fluctuate depending on the timing of customer receipts and capital expenditures.
The short-term outlook depends on successful conversions rather than new order announcements. If Q3 earnings meet expectations, the majority of profit generation will fall to Q4. Any disruptions in supply could challenge the anticipated 19% margin.
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