New York, Jan 31, 2026, 05:09 EST — Market closed
- AGNC ended Friday at $11.40, dropping roughly 4.8%.
- Filings from Friday revealed stock sales by two senior executives.
- Next week’s U.S. payrolls report and bond yields will be the key drivers in the short term.
AGNC Investment Corp shares fell 4.8%, ending Friday at $11.40, wrapping up a choppy week for mortgage REITs, which often mirror U.S. rate shifts. Volume hit roughly 42.5 million shares, surpassing recent daily averages. (Investing)
This shift is crucial since AGNC’s portfolio is marked to market and closely linked to both the level and shape of the yield curve. Even a few basis points — just 0.01 percentage point — can alter the value of mortgage bonds, and with it, the book value investors rely on as a reference.
Another factor is the calendar. AGNC pays a monthly dividend, and as February approaches, the payout date is close enough to influence positioning—especially for funds focused on dividend-capture strategies.
Earlier this month, the company announced a $0.12 per share cash dividend for January, set to be paid on Feb. 10 to shareholders of record as of Jan. 30. Based on Friday’s closing price, that works out to an annualized yield of about 12.6%, before factoring in taxes or price changes. (PR Newswire)
Two senior executives disclosed stock sales in filings signed Friday. Bernice Bell, EVP and CFO, sold 25,000 common shares on Jan. 28 at a weighted average price of $12.14, executing under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. On the same day, Kenneth L. Pollack, EVP and general counsel, offloaded 50,000 shares at a weighted average of $12.11, also following a 10b5-1 plan. (SEC)
Rates remain the dominant factor. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Friday she still expects three quarter-point rate cuts this year, though the Fed might “keep policy powder dry” for now as it waits on stronger data. She added, “The labor market is fragile.” (Reuters)
Politics is creeping into the rate narrative. Stephen Miran expects Kevin Warsh, nominated to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, to fill his soon-to-expire governor seat first. Miran, who dissented in favor of a rate cut this week, told Reuters, “There is no inflation problem.” (Reuters)
AGNC trades within a closely connected set of mortgage REITs, including Annaly Capital Management and Dynex Capital. On any given day, movements usually hinge on funding expenses and bond market trends rather than housing credit factors.
AGNC revealed in an SEC filing this week that its tangible net book value stood at $8.88 per share as of Dec. 31. The firm’s tangible net book value “at risk” leverage ratio was 7.2x, underscoring how sensitive portfolio values remain to interest rate fluctuations. It also reported a $94.8 billion investment portfolio at fair value and noted it raised $356 million by issuing 34.9 million common shares through at-the-market offerings. (SEC)
The setup works both ways. If benchmark yields climb and agency mortgage spreads widen, book value can drop quickly, bringing dividend coverage back into focus. On the other hand, calmer rate markets or reduced funding costs tend to stabilize spreads and bolster book value.
Traders will zero in on the bond tape first thing Monday—Treasury yields, mortgage-bond spreads, and any shifts hinting at a changed outlook for rate cuts. After that, all eyes turn to the U.S. January jobs report, dropping Feb. 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET, known to jolt yields within minutes. (Bls)
