Sao Paulo, Jan 31, 2026, 08:54 BRT — Market closed.
Vale’s U.S.-listed shares (VALE) ended Friday down 5.1%, closing at $16.07 following an intraday low of $15.96.
The iron ore miner faces fresh operational hurdles in Minas Gerais as state inspectors ordered Vale’s Viga mine to stay closed “until the firm presents reports that show it can re-establish environmental control,” said Gustavo Endrigo. Authorities also slapped three fines totaling 1.7 million reais ($324,000). They reported tailings from the Fábrica operation had reached the Maranhao River and cautioned about more heavy rain expected next week. Vale has yet to respond to requests for comment. (Mining)
Demand concerns have resurfaced. China’s official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3 in January from 50.1 in December, according to an official survey. That’s below the key 50 threshold marking expansion, and it missed a Reuters poll forecast of 50.0. Ting Lu at Nomura warned that “Beijing will have to do much more in coming months to deliver an annual GDP growth rate above 4.5% in 2026.” Investors are also eyeing a private-sector PMI set for release on Feb. 2. (Reuters)
Broader Brazil-linked risk assets took a hit as well. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF dropped roughly 2.8% on Friday.
On the supply front, attention is on Guinea’s Simandou project, a potential game-changer for high-grade iron ore pricing down the line. Baowu Resources raised its stake in the operator of Simandou Blocks 1 and 2 from 49% to 51%, taking control last Friday, Reuters reported. The full project aims to ship up to 120 million metric tons annually. Separately, Rio Tinto remains involved in the Simfer partnership covering Blocks 3 and 4. (Reuters)
Base metals stirred up the market again. Copper surged past $14,000 a metric ton this week, a fresh record, before easing back as speculative traders jumped in. “Copper posted its biggest one-day gain in years… driven by intense speculative trading by bulls in China,” noted Neil Welsh of Britannia Global Markets. He also pointed to strong investor interest in metals linked to infrastructure and power demand. (Reuters)
The path ahead is far from clear. Should the shutdown extend, Vale might see remediation costs climb and encounter stricter permitting rules, despite a potentially limited impact on production. Sluggish demand from China would weigh on iron ore prices, while emerging supply sources like Simandou continue to cast a shadow.
Markets reopen Monday, and traders will be eyeing whether regulatory news dies down or escalates — plus, the upcoming China activity data could tilt the outlook on steel demand.
Vale is set to release its fourth-quarter financial results on Feb. 12, with a conference call scheduled for Feb. 13. Investors will be eager to dig into details on disruptions, costs, and future guidance during the call. (SEC)
