New York, Jan 31, 2026, 12:42 ET — Market closed.
- U.S. natural gas futures closed Friday up by double digits, driven by ongoing concerns over winter demand.
- After a short outage at a key Texas facility, LNG export feedgas has returned to traders’ focus.
- The key tests ahead: next week’s U.S. storage data and temperature forecasts for early February.
U.S. natural gas prices closed out the week with a strong surge. The March Henry Hub contract jumped 11.1% on Friday, finishing at $4.354 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Commodity Weather Group pointed to below-normal temperatures forecasted from Feb. 4-8 across parts of the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. This cold snap helped push natural gas-linked ETFs like UNG and BOIL sharply higher alongside the futures climb. (Barchart)
This shift is critical as winter gas trading hinges on slight temperature changes and just a few billion cubic feet of supply. It affects heating demand, power generation, and the producers and utilities locking in hedges through February.
Weekend trading is done, but the next session promises more volatility sparked by the storm. Traders will pore over weather models, production bounce-back, and LNG export demand, all looking for clues that tightness remains in the market.
Data from LSEG indicated that gas flows to Freeport LNG were set to increase to 1.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Friday, up from 1.5 bcfd on Thursday. This follows the shutdown of one liquefaction train due to a compressor system problem. European gas prices fell about 1%, weighed down by expectations of more U.S. supply. Meanwhile, Cove Point and Elba Island imported LNG during the cold snap—an unusual move for typically export-focused plants. (Reuters)
The latest U.S. storage figures failed to ease market nerves. Working gas in storage dropped by 242 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Jan. 23, settling at 2,823 Bcf. That’s still 143 Bcf higher than the five-year average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The next update is scheduled for Feb. 5. (EIA Information Releases)
This week’s price moves partly reflected how fast supply rebounds after the late-January freeze. “As temperatures normalize, production should be restored quickly,” Matthew Bernstein, vice president of North America oil and gas at Rystad Energy, told the Midland Reporter-Telegram. (Midland Reporter-Telegram)
Regarding supply, Baker Hughes reported that gas rigs climbed by three to 125 in the week ending Jan. 30, despite the overall U.S. rig count staying below last year’s figures. Remember, rig counts offer an early glimpse of production months ahead, not immediate supply shifts. (BOE Report)
This market has slammed late buyers before. A shift to warmer forecasts, quicker production bounce-back, or another LNG glitch could swiftly tip the scales and push prices lower again.
Trading kicks off again Sunday evening. The next key date? Feb. 5, when the storage report drops. Updated weather forecasts are expected to influence the market ahead of that.
